PEPE is facing a fractal repeat scenario for 2024: A bullish opportunity three times?

The memecoin market has restored its market capitalization to 80 billion USD, with the crown belonging to Dogecoin (DOGE) at 35 billion USD, followed by Shiba Inu (SHIB) reaching 7.9 billion USD and Pepe (PEPE) holding the third position with 5.1 billion USD.

The recovery is primarily led by memecoins on the Ethereum platform, as ETH breaks back above the 4,000 USD threshold. In this context, PEPE recorded a 10.8% increase in just 24 hours, reaching 0.00001237 USD at the time of writing, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Since the beginning of the month, PEPE has increased by 18.3% although it is still 36% lower than the peak at the beginning of the year.

"An interesting starting point for a price increase"

Galaxy's analysts believe that PEPE seems to be replicating the impressive scenario of 2024, when the price once tripled from 0.000010 USD to 0.000032 USD.

Notably, the current accumulation phase is larger in scale, opening up the possibility for a stronger breakout. If history repeats itself, price levels around 0.000030 USD – or even higher – are completely within reach.

However, this scenario is only feasible if PEPE holds the important support zone after retesting. Conversely, this memecoin may fall into a "stuck" state in a prolonged accumulation cycle, especially when August usually records a lackluster performance in the cryptocurrency market.

Fractal PEPE on the weekly frame | Source: Galaxy/X## The "max pain" level of PEPE

Liquidation data shows that the "max pain" level of PEPE is at 0.0000126 USD, where approximately 1.29 million USD in short positions (Short) are concentrated. On the opposite side, 1.48 million USD in long positions (Long) are being heavily accumulated at 0.0000114 USD. Notably, the overnight breakout has wiped out over 2.56 million USD in short positions.

The largest leverage clusters below the current price level appear at 0.0000121 USD, 0.0000119 USD, and 0.0000110 USD, with a total value of approximately 4 million USD. Additionally, the level of 0.0000115 USD also forms a "cluster" worth monitoring.

Source: CoinGlassAbove, the two levels of 0.0000124 USD and 0.0000126 USD act as important "barriers", with potential liquidation volumes of 1.12 million USD and 1.14 million USD respectively. If these levels are breached, PEPE could very well enter a surge phase, fueled by a widespread "short squeeze" effect.

Accumulation and Profit Evaluation

Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the accumulation of capital from retail investors into PEPE is increasing significantly, as the number of addresses holding between 10 USD and 1 million USD continues to set new highs. In contrast, the activity of "whales" remains in a sideways trend.

According to statistics from Dune, PEPE has recorded a total of 6.72 million transactions, with 1.19 million buyers and 838,771 sellers.

Source: DuneThe recent price surge has increased the percentage of profitable investors to 68%, while reducing the percentage of "Out of the Money" addresses to about 32% at the time of writing.

Source: IntoTheBlockCurrently, the largest token concentration zones are at the price level of 0.000012 USD (corresponding to 38.87 trillion PEPE) and 0.000013 USD (31.38 trillion PEPE).

The price movements in these two regions will be a crucial test, determining whether PEPE can recreate the spectacular breakout of 2024 throughout 2025.

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