this bitcoin thesis will retire your bloodline

please read this post in its entirety. it might retire your bloodline.

if i’m correct, bitcoin is now in the final stages of a generational rotation.

many, if not most, of old big holders have rotated out of the asset. they sold what they believed to be the top (around $100k) and have been replaced by fresh new holders.

this sort of rotation is very rare, and very hard to pull off. but once it succeeds — and i believe it has — what follows is a rally in multiples previously considered unimaginable.

but you don’t have to imagine what this looks like. because turns out IT HAPPENED BEFORE.

ever heard of dogecoin?…

dogecoin is known as the king of memecoins today, the meme that everyone dreams of replicating. but few understand what actually happened and how doge achieved its legendary meme status. and just how unimaginable it was all along.

since doge was created in 2013 it was seen as a joke in crypto. experienced altcoin traders believed the way to play doge was to accumulate it over months during its quiet periods, then sell to crypto newcomers when they show up every couple of years or so for 5x-10x profit, then start accumulating again at the following quiet period. rinse and repeat.

they’ve done this for multiple cycles, buying and selling doge for less than a penny and rinsing the noobs

but on april 2 2019, something crazy happened

elon musk, at the time the celebrity ceo of tesla and spacex, tweeted “dogecoin might be my favorite cryptocurrency. it’s pretty cool”.

on this news, doge rallied 50%, from 0.24 cents to to 0.36 cents (that’s cents, not dollars).

1.5x is pretty impressive for a day’s work, right?

wrong. it’s nothing. doge was about to go 200x higher from there and nearly flip ethereum.

but in july 2019, existing doge holders couldn’t imagine such a future. doge from $0.0025 to almost $1 in a couple of years?? that’s ridiculous. absurd. can’t happen.

this was a huge deal, and crypto natives thought they knew it was a huge deal, but they underestimated it BY A LOT

so after a 50% rally, they said a prayer to satoshi and thanked him that elon fucking musk started shilling doge, then they began selling.

and for a while, they were right

old holders kept selling every pump for most of the year, and they felt pretty good about themselves as doge kept failing to break up.

but under the surface something was happening. after covid broke and the masses learned they can sit at home and try to short squeeze GME on robinhood, some of them noticed that robinhood also offered access to crypto.

back in 2020, robinhood only had 7 cryptocurrencies listed. boomer coin BTC, nerd coin ETH, and then a few cringe ones like BCH and ETC. the only coin that was funny and cool on robinhood, was DOGE.

the army of robinhood meme traders saw the opportunity and started a wildly popular tiktok trend, the “Dogecoin Challenge”.

users were encouraged to share screenshots of their robinhood accounts, showcasing their dogecoin purchases. the trend blew up. everyone was buying .

just some tiktokers. not a big deal…

but CT didn’t notice…

in 2020 crypto natives barely paid attention to either robinhood or tiktok. most old doge holders were completely oblivious to what was going on. so whenever price was going up a little bit, they sold.

as far as they were concerned, doge was just a stupid joke that you sell on pumps and buy on dumps to make some extra shekels.

and if you just looked at the chart, you’d believe that. for most of 2020 the price didn’t move that much. everyone was trained to believe “when elon tweets we only go up 20%” because old holders were always there to sell and push the price back down.

they had no faith.

but the new holders DID have faith

underneath the surface the tiktok kids kept buying the entire time.

crypto twitter was largely oblivious. the chart convinced them that nothing ever happens.

until in january 2021, doge sellers FINALLY ran out of tokens.

in 2 short weeks, doge went on a monster run from $0.008 to $0.08. that’s 10x in 2 weeks. with size. its market cap went from 1 billion to 10 billion.

the timeline was losing its shit. group chats lit up. old whales were calling each other in the middle of the night. ARE YOU SEEING THIS????

“ARE YOU SEEING THIS?!?!” the first dogecoin mindfuck

it is hard to put into words how big of a mindfuck that was. most crypto natives were absolutely losing it because almost all of them owned doge at some point over the prior 7 years, and almost all of them sold it. they barely paid attention to the tiktok trends and had no idea that this move was brewing for months.

but their biggest fuck up was yet to come

finally realizing that the entire retail world is in love with doge, some shrewd crypto traders started buying back. lots of posts on the timeline of people bragging about quick 2x flips they did with doge. they were all very proud of themselves.

but none of them could imagine that this entire massive move was just the warm up.

their minds were still anchored in old doge prices. doge is a sub-cent coin. everyone knew this. if it briefly goes above a cent that’s a bubble, we use that to stack more stablecoins and we leave.

but the new holders didn’t know about old prices

the tiktok and robinhood kids had no idea about the years of pain old doge holders endured. heck, when they zoomed out on robinhood charts they couldn’t even see historical price action. for them it was a blank slate, and “doge to a dollar“ was entirely reasonable.

and so, with old holders rotated out, and with new holders having no concept of old low prices, and after convincing CT over february to april that the move was done, doge exploded ANOTHER 10x upwards, to its ultimate peak around $0.70.

what happens when sellers run out of tokens. illustration

that’s 200x higher than the peak of the first elon rally in 2019. in 2 years. the tiktokers cashed out big, and CT missed the entire move. the best CT traders managed to maybe lock in a 3x somewhere in between (and made sure to brag about it on the timeline for months).

the same thing is happening today with bitcoin

granted, bitcoin is much bigger today than doge was then. but the players are much bigger too. instead of robinhood retail traders and tiktokers we have institutions, ETFs, and bitcoin treasury companies like MSTR. and instead of elon shilling doge (he wasn’t as big of a deal in 2019 btw as he is now) we have the president of the free world shilling bitcoin. maybe we even have — or soon will have — nation states buying bitcoin.

institutions have been buying up crazy amounts of bitcoin from old holders: the crypto natives who aren’t paying attention. the crypto natives don’t know how traditional capital markets work. in fact they mock them. they don’t want to know. so they missed it entirely and kept selling around $100k, because to them that number is laughably high.

but the new buyers don’t even see that number. $IBIT, the blackrock bitcoin etf, is priced at around $70. its chart begins at the etf listing date, in january 2024, at the price of $30. it’s only up $40! that’s nothing! why not $700?..

this is the chart $IBIT holders see

and bitcoin treasury companies like saylor’s MSTR don’t even see the unit price of the underlying. they measure purchases in $ value. “last week we deployed $500m”. they’re completely insensitive to the bitcoin price. they just shove as many dollars as they can. (btw, MSTR is very likely to continue to do this at an increasing velocity. if you’re sitting around waiting for saylor to blow up, that means you do not understand what’s going on. do your research. it’s not happening anytime soon)

CT and the crypto natives thought that the run up from $50k to $100k following the ETF approval and trump’s victory was the entire move. i mean, it stopped going up!

but the truth is it just took time to rotate the asset out of the hands of old holders. the real move didn’t even start yet.

look around you.

most the old bitcoin maxis are nowhere to be found. where are they? did they disappear?

most of them sold. they bought a house and a boat and fucked right off.

where are the crypto investoooors? they swapped into ETH and wrote essays about the flippening and staking yields.

the young degens? never had bitcoin in the first place, they’re all trading worthless vaporware memecoins. dreaming to catch the next dogecoin, not realizing that the next dogecoin is literally bitcoin.

no one is left. wall street bought everyone’s bitcoins. and they’re just getting started.

so what’s next?

as you’re reading this, you don’t want to believe. you’re most likely severely underexposed to bitcoin. you know that i’ve been right about bitcoin on a play-by-play basis, every single day, for months now, which is why you’re reluctantly reading this, but you still don’t want to believe.

so if we think back to the dogecoin story, that places us after elon’s first tweet and after the tiktok “Dogecoin Challenge”, but before the first 10x in january 2021.

in other words, after etfs, after saylor acceleration, after trump. but before anyone believes that this time actually is different. before anyone realizes that sellers ran out of tokens.

bitcoin is bigger, so maybe we don’t see a 10x straight away, but as i said before i have a high degree of confidence that we’ll see $400k by the end of this year. this target might be too conservative.

you still think that’s preposterous. but old holders are out. there is simply no reason why we can’t have fast multiples anymore.

but also, that’s just the first move. i think that just like doge, the first mindfuck will be followed by a bigger, faster, more violent mindfuck. another 10x or more following the first 400k target. that happens when the entire world starts to believe (remember every single young person in the world talking about doge for a month?). but i don’t want to talk about that too much right now. that’s the second mindfuck. the time for that will come later.

we’re just entering the first mindfuck.

what does that mean for you?

first of all, you will actually be able to retire off of 1 bitcoin. if it’s at all possible for you to acquire 1 bitcoin do it right now. set it aside and forget about it. i am not sure you will ever have that opportunity again.

second, after you buy your first bitcoin, keep buying bitcoin. just keep adding. that’s what wall st is doing. do you really think you’re smarter than wall st? they’ve already lapped you for the last 2 years.

third, now is not the time to wait for dips. who’s going to sell? old holders are out. they can’t sell you their coins they already sold them

oh, and fourth…

your altcoins

your altcoins are fucked. there will be some pockets of outperformance here and there and if you’re really tuned in maybe you’ll catch them. in and out, wham bam thank you scam. but most of them will not be able to keep up with the sheer amount of capital flowing into bitcoin.

this will not happen immediately. but if bitcoin is going to 50x-100x in a relatively short time period, nothing will be able to catch up sustainably, not even coins that are supported by revenue, unless that revenue grows 50x too, which i suppose is possible for early businesses. so you can still bet on early businesses if you really want to.

it is funny how some of the big memecoins dream to recreate dogecoin’s success, without understanding what really made it succeed. they think if they copy some elements, like being listed on robinhood (but this time alongside 500 other coins) or getting elon to mention it (but it’s not cool anymore he does it all the time), or making some tiktok videos (nowhere near the covid zeitgeist) they could make it happen. but the pieces just don’t fit. it’s clear that bitcoin is a much better story.

and the biggest loser of the cycle will probably be ethereum. MSTR market cap probably flips ethereum market cap. ethereum will literally fulfill the prophecy: “there is no second best” as it leaves the number 2 spot and gets replaced by MSTR. it’s cute that eth holders are starting treasury companies too, but they won’t be able to catch up this cycle.

you should be able to easily see the problem, with biggest eth bulls on the timeline aiming at miserable targets like $4000, and cringelords like sassal and eric.eth still posting slop every day. the problem is that the old bagholders are still around. so yes, eth will outperform here and there but only for short bursts, and big picture ETH/BTC will continue to print lower highs as old bagholders continue to fuck off on every little pump.

if lubin and tom lee and friends continue to buy them out for years, then maybe next cycle ethereum can finally have a real run. i don’t think it happens this cycle.

wall street is buying all of the bitcoins

please buy some bitcoin before there isn’t any left.

thank you for your attention to this matter!

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