Bitcoin has made a strong rebound, breaking through the 110,000 mark, just a step away from its historical high.

Bitcoin bullish momentum reappears, the price successfully breaks through the 110,000 dollar mark (though with a slight retreat). After reaching a 24-hour high of 110,117 dollars, the current trading price is reported at 108,960 dollars, with a slight fall of 0.4% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Approaching Historical Peak This rise brings Bitcoin within approximately 2000 dollars of its historical peak (ATH) of 111,814 dollars set in May 2025. The proximity of this key resistance level is drawing the close attention of traders and analysts. In addition to the notable price fluctuations, on-chain data is also starting to reveal deeper market activity signals.

On-chain data reveals anomalies: Major CEX sees massive BTC outflows, spot trading volume surges CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha pointed out that a large amount of BTC has been transferred out of major CEXs recently. This movement of funds coincides with an increase in market expectations regarding a series of U.S. macroeconomic indicators that could affect Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Taha emphasized that the CEX recorded a net outflow of over 3400 BTC in a single day, shortly after the price of Bitcoin broke the $109,000 mark.

Exchange Fund Outflow: What Does It Mean? Withdrawing large amounts of coins from centralized exchanges (CEX) is often interpreted as a signal that holders may be preparing for long-term holding (HODL) or are avoiding potential short-term market volatility risks.

Meanwhile, the CEX's share of the global Bitcoin spot trading volume surged from 41% to 56% in just one trading session. Taha pointed out that this surge indicates that traders seeking exposure to Bitcoin are significantly increasing their reliance on CEX liquidity ahead of the expected release of market-impacting economic data.

The outflow trend and spot trading volume are rising together, revealing that traders are actively responding to broader market signals (especially those from the traditional financial sector).

Macro Drivers: US Employment Reports Become Market Focus Catalysts The current surge in Bitcoin activity coincides with the market's heightened attention to U.S. labor market data, which includes Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

Correlation between Federal Reserve Policy and Bitcoin Investors are closely monitoring these inflation indicators as they will influence inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy path. Changes in interest rate expectations typically have a direct impact on risk assets like Bitcoin, as fluctuations in capital costs affect market liquidity and investor risk appetite.

How do traders layout? Taha believes that the recent capital outflow from CEX may reflect investors positioning for potential macro-driven market volatility. He wrote in the report: "The outflow of Bitcoin from CEX, accompanied by a sharp increase in spot trading activity... seems to indicate that investors are preparing for potential upward volatility (bullish)."

Market Expectations: Key to Interest Rate Decisions If the upcoming employment report performs positively, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates or extend the pause on rate hikes, it may simultaneously boost bullish sentiment in both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market.