Can Musk's "American Party" succeed?

Written by: Chen Ming, Securities Firm China

According to the latest news on July 6, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party", and he has made a new statement. When asked whether the new political party would participate in the midterm elections or presidential elections, Musk replied, "Next year." Subsequently, Musk's response regarding the topic of "candidacy timing" surged to the top of Baidu's trending searches.

Previously, Musk revealed during a poll among netizens that the "American Party" will initially focus on 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts, attempting to become a decisive force in Congress through these key positions. This strategy is markedly different from the traditional approach of political parties trying to win a majority of seats.

However, some media commentators have stated that the "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the United States is not friendly to third-party candidates. It is extremely difficult to establish a successful third-party in the U.S., even for someone with immense wealth and influence like Musk.

Musk responds to 'election timing': next year

According to CCTV news reports, on July 5 local time, following the announcement of the establishment of the "American Party," Musk made a new statement. When asked whether the new political party would participate in the midterm elections or the presidential election, he provided a timeline.

On the 5th, Musk announced on his social media that the "American Party" has been established. In response to a netizen's question about whether his new political party would participate in the 2026 midterm elections or the 2028 presidential election, Musk replied, "Next year."

Recently, Musk and U.S. President Trump had a disagreement over the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill. On June 30, Musk sharply criticized the so-called "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill pushed by Trump, stating that if the bill passed, a "American Party" would be established the next day. On July 4, local time, President Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, making it effective. Several hours before the bill was signed into law, Musk once again posted a poll on social media regarding the establishment of a new party, asking netizens whether the "American Party" should be formed to "liberate" the American people from the two-party system of alternating Democrats and Republicans. In the approximately 1.249 million netizen votes received, supporters accounted for 65.4%, while opponents made up 34.6%.

On July 5, local time, American billionaire Elon Musk posted a message on social media: "Today, the establishment of the 'American Party' gives you freedom." Musk made this statement in response to a post he published on the 4th. "The support and opposition ratio is 2:1, indicating that you want a new political party, and you will have a new political party," Musk wrote. America is "bankrupt due to waste and corruption."

Some netizens speculate that the political program of the "American Party" may include reducing debt spending, promoting AI technology development, and全面放松监管, to which Musk responded, "That's right!"

On July 4th local time, Musk revealed during a Twitter poll that the "American Party" will initially focus on 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts, attempting to become a decisive force in Congress through these key positions. Musk's strategy contrasts sharply with traditional political parties that aim to win a majority of seats. Musk is targeting to become the "critical minority" in Congress, influencing policy-making by playing a decisive role in key votes.

Musk pointed out that in the current situation where the distribution of congressional seats is extremely close, such precise strategies are sufficient to influence significant legislation and ensure that it "truly represents the will of the people."

Can the "American Party" succeed?

According to U.S. law, a qualified political party must undergo a complex certification process to be established, which first requires convening a caucus or convention to elect temporary officials and designate the party name. It is unclear whether Musk's "American Party" has initiated the relevant procedures.

"Establishing a successful third party in the United States is extremely difficult, even for someone with immense wealth and influence like Musk." Recently, Newsweek commented, "History is not on his side."

Reports and analyses suggest that, despite Musk's undeniable mobilization ability displayed on the internet, his posts on the X platform have repeatedly triggered severe fluctuations in the financial markets. His followers are loyal, high-profile, and influential, but political organization is another matter. It requires ground action, coalition building, and stable alliance relationships, which cannot be established through memes or live broadcasts. Many political movements that have gained popularity online in the past have often struggled to translate online support into tangible offline impact.

"Systemic barriers in the electoral system—such as strict voter qualification laws, the Electoral College system, winner-takes-all voting methods, and the blocking of national debate platforms—almost make it impossible for any new political party to make real progress without dismantling decades of political structure." The report states that even with Musk's vast resources and media influence, these barriers remain deeply entrenched.

Public reports indicate that historically, third parties have struggled to achieve political success in the United States. Businessman Ross Perot received nearly 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election, but failed to win a single electoral vote. Ralph Nader was labeled a "spoiler" in the 2000 election. Recently, the "Forward Party," founded by Chinese American entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, has garnered attention but has struggled to gain traction.

According to Global Network, Deutsche Welle cited the words of political scholar Bernard Thomas from Valdosta State University, stating that for a "third party" to succeed in the United States, the prerequisite is that there must be a large number of people who are disillusioned with the existing political options, and the new party must be able to respond to public dissatisfaction, thereby establishing a grassroots movement from the bottom up. However, many emerging political parties often have unclear stances and are unable to truly respond to people's strong desire for change.

According to reports, while many Americans are indeed dissatisfied with the existing political choices, a study by two American political scientists in May 2024 found that Republicans and Democrats who are dissatisfied with their own party are actually less willing to vote for a more moderate new political party.

According to CNN, American political parties are governed not only by the laws and regulations of the Federal Election Commission but also by the laws and regulations of each state, including which parties can appear on the ballot. Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz said, "The setup of the system makes it almost impossible for third parties to succeed."

In the United States, forming a new political party also faces unique funding obstacles. The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, passed in 2022, imposes strict limits on party donations. The current regulation states that the total amount of donations for different party purposes cannot exceed $450,000. Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission and attorney, stated that Musk needs to gather thousands of joint donors to raise enough funds for his party.

Goodman told CNN: "Due to the existence of federal campaign contribution limits, even an extremely wealthy individual cannot establish a new national political party by injecting capital like starting a business. Under the current regulatory framework, the idea of wealthy founders providing startup funds to form a national political party and then participate in federal elections in various states is not realistic."

If the difficulty of forming a new political party is too high, Musk can still exert significant influence through his super PAC, which can accept unlimited funding from him. Such committees can then support independent candidates, who may also find it easier to qualify for ballots. Goodman stated: "Whether it's personal independent expenditures or through super PACs, this remains the most effective way for the wealthy to legally and practically engage in national politics."