Chainlink (LINK) Price Prediction: Forming a Clear Bullish Structure, Are Traders Betting That It Has Become Overheated?

Chainlink (LINK) continues its bullish trend, with a preliminary report of 16.55 USD during the Asian early trading session today (17). As it approaches the key resistance level of 17.39 USD, a clear bullish structure is formed. After recovering the median range of 15.90 USD, LINK continues to make new lows and new highs, indicating that long positions are steadily buying in.

Can sustained spot demand drive LINK to break through the "resistance wall"?

The recipient's buying volume leading indicator continues to favor long positions, as indicated by the positive spot recipient CVD over a 90-day timeframe.

This indicates that active buyers continue to dominate sellers in the spot market for LINK - a trend that typically supports continuous price increases.

However, this indicator alone is not sufficient to guarantee a breakout. If the trading activity on the exchange does not increase significantly, the pump may stagnate.

Nevertheless, the dominance of active buyers still indicates that strong demand is supporting the recovery of LINK.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Is the LINK market overheated?

As of the time of writing this article, the MVRV ratio has risen to 37.87%, which means that most holders are in a profitable state. In the past, due to increased profit-taking, such high levels often lead to local tops.

In addition, the NVT ratio has been continuously surging, which typically indicates an imbalance between price and actual network activity.

Although the price pump may reflect optimistic sentiment, the sharp increase in NVT indicates that the price has exceeded the actual on-chain use cases.

Therefore, although the market sentiment remains bullish, LINK may be entering the speculative territory, and cautious traders should closely monitor the risks of a reversal.

(Source: Santiment)

What does the reversal of financing rates reflect about market sentiment?

After experiencing several weeks of negative values, the financing rate has turned positive at the time of writing this article, indicating an increasing preference for long positions on derivative trading platforms.

A positive funding rate means that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions, reflecting a higher level of confidence among traders.

However, this confidence also comes with risks—if the price cannot continue to pump, long positions may face liquidation pressure.

(Source: Santiment)

Will an increase in open interest stimulate a rebound or increase volatility risk?

As of the writing of this article, the open interest (OI) has grown by 8.47% in the past 24 hours, reaching 843.05 million USD, indicating a high level of participation from derivatives traders. This increase suggests that speculative sentiment is more active and aligns with the ongoing bullish momentum.

However, high OI may also indicate a risk of high volatility, especially when high leveraged positions may be liquidated.

The heatmap of CEX shows concentrated liquidations below the $17 area, indicating that a breakout or rejection here could trigger rapid price fluctuations.

Therefore, although the bullish momentum remains, investors should still be cautious near the resistance area.

(Source: Coinglass)

Will LINK break through or continue to be resisted within the range?

LINK is showing strength again, with long positions pushing the price close to the key resistance level around $17.5. Spot demand, financing rates, and open interest all support a bullish outlook.

However, on-chain indicators and centralized clearing suggest that the possibility of a price pullback still exists. Whether LINK can turn this price range into a support level or face a retracement again will determine its short-term trend.