$14.59 billion BTC/ETH Options expire today! Maximum pain point BTC $112K, ETH $2900

The crypto assets market faces a significant test today (Friday, July 25), with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts worth up to $14.59 billion set to expire. According to Deribit data, the expiration scale approaches last month's record of $17 billion, with BTC options accounting for over 80%, and the notional value reaching $11.94 billion. The options market's put-call ratio (PCR) indicates cautious optimism, but the 'maximum pain' position (BTC $112,000 / ETH $2,900) suggests prices may gravitate towards this area, causing fluctuations. Traders continue to hold bearish positions in a strong market, and movements related to Musk and Tesla's earnings report are also taken into consideration; crypto investors should be wary of price volatility risks due to today's expiration.

Massive Monthly Options Expiration, the Market Holds Its Breath

The cryptocurrency market is preparing for the potential volatility that may occur today (July 25, Friday), as the options contracts for this month (July) are set to expire today. The scale of this monthly options expiration is significantly higher than the levels seen in the past few weeks, making it a key event in the crypto derivatives market.

Analysts point out that the scale of this expiration is巨大, only slightly lower than the $17 billion record set at the end of the first half (H1) last month (end of June). The options expiration wave often triggers short-term violent fluctuations in the prices of underlying assets, and the spot prices of BTC and ETH are facing severe tests.

Data Interpretation: BTC Dominance, Maximum Pain Point Reveals Potential Price Gravity

According to data from the leading crypto derivatives exchange Deribit:

• Total Scale: The notional value of BTC and ETH options contracts expiring today amounts to $14.59 billion.

• BTC Options: Absolutely dominant, notional value $11.94 billion. Total open contracts amount to 103,584 (including put and call options).

  

• ETH Options: notional value $2.649 billion. Open interest is primarily composed of bullish options (Call), totaling 737,361 contracts.

  

• Market Sentiment (PCR):

  • The put/call ratio (Put/Call Ratio, PCR) for BTC options is 0.93.
  • The PCR of ETH Options is 0.88.
  • A PCR below 1 usually indicates that market sentiment is leaning towards optimism (demand for bullish options contracts exceeds that for bearish options contracts), but a value close to 1 also shows a certain level of caution.

• Max Pain:

  • BTC Maximum Pain Point: $112,000 - This price is the strike price that causes the most options buyers (whether bullish or bearish) to suffer the largest financial loss.
  • ETH Maximum Pain Point: $2,900 - This price is the strike price at which the most ETH options buyers suffer the greatest loss.

• There is a phenomenon in the market where, at expiration, the underlying price is often "attracted" towards the maximum pain point level, exacerbating short-term fluctuation risks.

Trader Behavior: Bearish Stance, Focus on Downside Risks and Fluctuation

Despite the recent strong performance of the overall market, the behavior of options traders reveals concerns about a potential pullback.

The crypto derivatives analysis agency Greeks.live pointed out that many traders are holding onto their bearish (Put) positions, despite suffering significant losses. This indicates that most traders are still guarding against potential downside risks, with key discussion points centered around the implied volatility level of around 30%.

Analysts added that traders have indeed noticed significant events that could impact the market, such as the Bitcoin movements related to Elon Musk (referring to SpaceX transferring $153 million worth of BTC). However, Greeks.live believes that these fundamental factors are currently insufficient to significantly alter the overall layout of the options market. "Traders acknowledge that Musk's token transfer is a catalyst, but they still maintain a bearish stance, expecting their bearish options to profit (print)."

Related Events: TSL Options Bets and Earnings Report Impact

Previously, the activity in the options market was intertwined with events in the traditional market. Before Tesla (TSL) released its Q2 2025 financial report on July 23 (Wednesday), options traders placed bullish bets, net buying over $47 million in call options (usually used to bet on rising stock prices).

Analyst Andre Hiesinger's chart shows that TSLA options premium soared to $50 million at one point, with the spot price reported at $220.03, indicating a significant amount of speculative trading ahead of the earnings report. However, Tesla's Q2 performance ultimately fell slightly short of expectations, suggesting that investors' bullish expectations may have been somewhat excessive.

Market Status and Expectations

As of the time of publication:

• Bitcoin (BTC) price is $115,681
• Ethereum (ETH) price is reported at $3,634

The current prices are significantly above their respective maximum pain levels (BTC $112K, ETH $2.9K). Based on historical experience, as the options approach expiration (Deribit expires at UTC time today 20:00), there is pressure for the prices to correct towards the maximum pain, and short-term volatility is expected to rise significantly.

However, the market usually tends to stabilize after the options contract expiration settlement, and traders will adjust their strategies based on the new market environment.

Conclusion: The monthly options for BTC and ETH, amounting to as much as $14.59 billion, are set to expire today, akin to the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the Crypto Assets market. The maximum pain point reveals a price gravity (BTC $112K / ETH $2.9K) that diverges from the current spot prices, coupled with contradictory signals from traders holding bearish positions, indicating that there is a high likelihood of severe fluctuation in the intraday market. Although the volatility triggered by options expiration is often a short-term phenomenon, today's leverage traders and short-term investors need to remain highly vigilant about risks and closely monitor market trends around the Deribit settlement time (UTC 20:00). Whether the long-term trend can be reestablished after the volatility subsides will become the focus of market attention next week.