The US Housing Market in 2023: MBA Data Reveals Possible Rebound in Refinancing

The MBA mortgage data suggests that there have been significant changes in the housing market in recent years. One key trend is the impact of higher mortgage rates on refinancing activity. According to the MBA Refinance Application Index, the refinance index experienced a sharp decline in 2022, likely due to the increased cost of borrowing associated with higher mortgage rates. This decline in refinancing activity is indicative of a broader trend towards lower overall demand for mortgages, as borrowers may be deterred by the higher costs of borrowing.

However, there are some indications of a possible rebound in refinancing activity as of 2023, as suggested by the slight tick noted in the data. This could be due to a variety of factors, such as changes in the broader economic environment or adjustments to lending policies by mortgage providers. Nonetheless, the data suggests that the impact of higher mortgage rates on refinancing activity is likely to continue to be a key trend in the housing market in the coming years.

Another important trend highlighted by MBA Purchase Application Index is the significant decline in purchase activity, which is down 36% year-over-year unadjusted. This suggests that fewer people are buying homes, likely due to a combination of factors such as higher mortgage rates, tighter lending standards, and a limited supply of available homes. This decline in purchase activity could have broader implications for the housing market and the broader economy, as home buying and construction are often seen as key drivers of economic growth.