Jinshi data compilation: European Central Bank policy statement and Lagarde press conference highlights

Policy statement: 1. Statement overview: Interest rate cut by 25BP, with one member abstaining; monetary policy has become less tight, and restrictions will be significantly reduced as the Interest Rate is lowered. 2. Interest Rate outlook: No specific commitment to the Interest Rate path, with inflation prospects, core indicators, and transmission mechanisms determining the Interest Rate path. 3. Inflation outlook: The process of inflation falling is progressing smoothly, with this year's inflation expectations raised to 2.3% and next year's expectations remaining unchanged at 1.9%. 4. Economic outlook: GDP growth expectations for this and next year have been revised down to 0.9% and 1.2% respectively, with 2027 remaining unchanged at 1.3%. Lagarde press conference: 1. Interest Rate policy: If data indicate the need for an interest rate cut, we will cut. However, if the data suggest a need to pause the rate cuts, we will choose to pause. 2. Inflation outlook: The process of inflation falling is progressing smoothly, with Eurozone inflation remaining high. It is expected to achieve the 2% inflation target in early 2026. 3. Economic outlook: The rise pattern from last year is still ongoing. Risks to rise are tilted downwards, and high trade policy uncertainty is dragging on economic rise. 4. Tariff policy: Tariff rises will weaken economic rise in the Eurozone. Tariffs are not good at all and are purely negative in impact. 5. Spending plans: Defense and infrastructure spending may boost economic rise and drive inflation. The impact depends on specific details, and it is too early to draw conclusions now. 6. Other statements: Changes in wording of statements are significant. Despite significant Fluctuation in yields, the spread changes are limited. Geopolitical tensions bring bilateral risks. 7. Market reaction: After the statement was released, the Euro rose in the short term, bond yields continued to rise, and traders cooled their interest rate cut bets. The Euro fluctuated upwards during Lagarde's speech.