3 Signs Indicating a Major Q2 Rise for Bitcoin

Bitcoin started the new year favorably and surged to an all-time high of nearly $110,000 in mid-January. Its price record coincided with Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th president of the United States. However, since then, the asset has shown a clear downward trend, falling below $77,000 in March and is currently trading at around $84,000 according to CoinGecko.

However, several important factors suggest that BTC may experience a significant revival in the second quarter of the year. To begin with, let's examine the performance of the asset in the second quarter of previous years. Coinglass data shows that BTC has achieved solid growth in seven of the last twelve quarters. The halving event occurring in the spring of 2024 may also play a role, as the second quarter following this event saw a surge. The price of BTC skyrocketed over 120% in the second quarter of 2017, but fell in 2013 and 2021. There have only been two instances where this asset began the year with two consecutive quarters of decline, during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. Given that BTC ended the first quarter of 2025 with a decline of 11.82%, history suggests a different trajectory in the second quarter. The second factor that could lead to a BTC price increase in the coming months is the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the United States, which has maintained the benchmark rate after this year's FOMC meetings. However, there are some suggestions that the U.S. central bank will lower the percentage rate in some upcoming meetings. According to Polymarket, the likelihood of that happening in the FOMC meeting in June is around 53%. Lowering interest rates makes borrowing cheaper. This, in turn, may encourage investors to move toward riskier assets with higher profit potential, such as BTC. The top digital assets could also receive a boost in the event of a peace treaty or some de-escalation moves between Ukraine and Russia. Remember that the two countries have been at war since February 2022. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he will try to negotiate a ceasefire and mediate an end to the conflict. Last month, he held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a potential peace agreement between the adversaries. The conversations did not yield the expected results, as the road to peace is predicted to be long. However, positive developments on this front could lead to less instability in the markets and profits in the future. The Return of the Whale Another factor that could contribute to the short-term price increase of BTC is the recent activity of whales. As reported by CryptoPotato, the number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has surged to 1,993 - the highest level since the end of last year.

The increase in large holders often signals strong confidence and potential upward price momentum. However, traders should remember that if whales decide to sell en masse, they could flood the market with excess supply and cause a significant price drop, especially if demand does not keep up.