Real Market Capitalization Compared to Market Capitalization: Cryptoquant CEO Points Out the Bear Market Phase of Bitcoin

Ki Young Ju, CEO of Cryptoquant, stated this weekend that the bullish cycle of bitcoin has ended, while pointing out the increasing gap between real capitalization and market capitalization as evidence of a bear market. The CEO and data from Cryptoquant indicate that the bullish cycle of Bitcoin has ended. Realized cap, a metric on-chain tracking the average cost basis of BTC holdings, reflects the actual capital flow coming in. Market capitalization, based on the last trading price of BTC, measures the perceived value. The CEO of Cryptoquant, Ki Young Ju, explained that when the actual cap increases while the market capitalization stagnates, it indicates that capital is flowing into the market without increasing in price—a bearish trend.

This image captures the growth trajectory of bitcoin from 2013 to 2025 through two distinct perspectives: market capitalization, reflecting valuation based on price, and real capitalization, a metric based on aggregated cost basis. It maps this divergence between bullish and bearish cycles, providing a visual narrative of the changing dynamics. By framing these historical stages alongside Cryptoquant's CEO assessment of the current stagnation, this chart adds weight to his viewpoint—while subtly hinting at the potential for cyclical recovery, reflecting Bitcoin's recovery trends after such valuation gaps. On the contrary, market capitalization has skyrocketed while actual capitalization remains flat, indicating that the bullish momentum is driven by speculative buying activity. He notes that current data shows actual capitalization increasing as investors accumulate BTC, but prices remain stagnant due to high selling pressure. Ju referred to BTC purchases driven by the convertible bonds of Strategy (MSTR), which has amplified the gains on paper during low selling periods. "But when selling pressure is high, even large buy orders can't move the price," commented the CEO of Cryptoquant. "Simply put, there are too many sellers. For example, when bitcoin trades near $100,000, the market sees large volumes, but the price hardly changes."

However, the Cryptoquant executive noted that critics argue that onchain data may miss off-exchange activity, but Ju countered that large capital flows—including exchange-traded transactions, custodial movements, and exchange-traded fund transactions on (ETF)—are visible onchain. Historically, bear market reversals take at least six months, Ju noted, making short-term bull runs unlikely. While current data signals caution, history defies expectations as bitcoin creates room for optimism. Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity from the Trump administration, or positive macroeconomic changes could ignite bullish momentum, overriding short-term selling pressure. A surprising and bullish development could attract new capital, potentially rearranging actual Market Capitalization and market capitalization.