Bitcoin vs. Gold: Is it time to change leaders?

According to Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, the long-standing dynamic between Bitcoin and gold is changing once again—and the numbers may indicate that a shift is underway. In a recent tweet, Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin and gold have moved in opposite cycles, especially when measured by their Sharpe Ratios, a common metric for assessing risk-adjusted returns. Although the Sharpe Ratio for Bitcoin recently shows at -0.40(, the performance of gold currently seems to be going sideways, with the Sharpe Ratio increasing to 1.33. "Looking at the current situation, it may be Bitcoin's turn to lead," Timmer noted. "Perhaps we are about to be empowered from gold to Bitcoin."

Sharpe ratio trend: Is BTC about to recover? The chart shared in Timmer's post highlights the cyclical strength of gold and Bitcoin over time. Each asset has its periods of outperformance and the Sharpe ratio has provided valuable insights. Current: Gold is performing exceptionally well but may be reaching its peak. Bitcoin is lagging behind, but a negative Sharpe may indicate that the price of Bitcoin is nearing the bottom. This could mean a return to BTC, especially if risk appetite returns and capital flows shift away from defensive assets like gold. A macro perspective on digital and traditional safe havens As the head of macro strategy at Fidelity, Timmer often views digital assets through a broader lens. His analysis shows that Bitcoin is becoming a reliable alternative store of value—complementing, but also increasingly competing with gold. Although both serve as a hedge, their cycles and correlations differ significantly. With their recent divergence in Sharpe Ratios, Timmer's analysis may indicate an important inflection point. If history plays out that way, Bitcoin's next move could surprise to the upside.