Will ETH rise to 10,000 USD in the new cycle? Three ecological projects not to be ignored.

Written by: Trend Research

Trend Research Since April 24, 2025, the ** research report has been issued on the whole network, ETH has risen from $1,800 to around $2,400, an increase of about 30% in one month**, and the prediction before writing the research report is to start at $1,450. At that time, the main reasons for the firm bullishness include: ETH still has stable financial data, and the status of crypto as an important infrastructure has not changed; The short-term highs have a huge adjustment range (a decline of more than 60% in 4 months ) and the short position in the derivatives market is huge, and the bottom spot volume has climbed to an important support swap area, and the continuous layout of traditional finance and the gradual inflow of ETFs. At present, our prediction for ETH is that it can break through $5,000 in the long run, and in an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to 300,000+ in this cycle, ETH is expected to rise to $10,000**, and will capture the opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem in the long run.

1. Valuation forecast for ETH

An important background for the new valuation of ETH is the capture of the trend of integration between key digital assets and traditional finance. We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the door for being included as a strategic reserve asset by various states in the U.S. following the approval of the spot ETF, gradually becoming a scale expansion of dollar assets and a certain degree of strategic alternative. It currently ranks 6th in global asset market capitalization, with the U.S. BTC spot ETF currently managing about $118.6 billion in assets, accounting for approximately 6% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. The trend of integration between crypto assets and traditional finance is no longer in question. CZ stated in an interview in May in Dubai that Bitcoin's price in this market cycle may reach between $500,000 and $1 million.

ETH still has robust financial data, and its position as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance has not changed. The total TVL of Ethereum DeFi is approximately $60 billion, accounting for over 53% of the global DeFi market, while the market capitalization of stablecoins is $124 billion, making up over 50% of the total market capitalization of stablecoins. The total AUM of Ethereum ETFs is $7.2 billion, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has an investment scale of approximately $2.7 billion within the Ethereum ecosystem, representing 92% of its total assets.

After reaching a peak of $4000 three times in 2024, ETH quickly dropped to around $1300, with an ATH of over $4800. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that the ETH price will touch $5000 in this cycle:

• The impending end of the US QT and the further beginning of interest rate cuts
• The new SEC chairman may bring breakthroughs regarding the advancement of tokenization on the ETH chain and legislation related to staking.
• The management and route correction of the ETH Foundation, maintaining a certain level of infrastructure innovation.
• A stable and growing on-chain financial ecosystem

Under long-term optimistic predictions, ETH is expected to challenge 10,000 USD in the new cycle, and the following conditions need to be met:

• BTC rises above 300,000 USD
• ETH brings impressive infrastructure innovations beneficial for DeFi
• U.S. institutions are promoting ETH as an important native venue for asset tokenization.
• The demonstration effect drives global asset tokenization

2. Three ETH ecosystem projects not to be overlooked

1. UNI(Uniswap): The largest DEX protocol in the crypto market

Uniswap is the earliest and largest Dex protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of 4.7 billion dollars and a daily trading volume of over 2 billion dollars, generating an annual revenue of 900 million dollars. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance, currently having a circulating market cap of 4 billion dollars and an FDV of 6.6 billion.

Currently, there is a certain decoupling between the token economics design of UNI and the protocol's revenue. The revenue generated by the protocol is not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI mainly serves as a governance token, allowing holders to vote on the use of the treasury. Through governance proposals, it can indirectly have a positive impact on the price of UNI, such as in 2024, when the DAO voted to repurchase 10 million UNI.

The decoupling between protocol revenue and token earnings is mainly due to the SEC's previous risk considerations regarding the qualitative regulation of securities. Currently, as U.S. cryptocurrency regulation is gradually becoming more lenient and standardized, there may be potential upgrades for UNI's protocol allocation in the future.

Recently, the main progress of Uniswap has been in the Uniswap V4 and Unichain expansion, as well as the preliminary activation of the "Fee Switch" mechanism.

2、AAVE(Aave): The largest lending protocol in the crypto market

AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $23 billion, generating $450 million in revenue per year, and a token circulation of 100%, currently valued at $3.3 billion.

Similar to UNI's situation, the protocol revenue does not have a direct dividend relationship with AAVE, but rather influences it indirectly through governance.

Recently, Aave's main progress includes the development of Aave V4, the cross-chain expansion of the native stablecoin GHO, and the advancement of the Horizon project for exploring RWA business.

3, ENA(Ethena): The largest synthetic stablecoin protocol in the crypto market.

Since 2025, Ethena's synthetic dollar USDe has become the third largest dollar-pegged asset in the crypto market, with an issuance scale second only to USDT and USDC, and USDe is also the only synthetic stablecoin among them. In terms of yield, Ethena is also a highly profitable DeFi protocol, generating $315 million in revenue in a year. ENA currently has a market capitalization of $2.18 billion and an FDV of $5.6 billion.

Recently, Ethena has made comprehensive business progress: Ethena will collaborate with Securitize to launch the "Converge" blockchain network, aimed at bridging traditional finance and DeFi, plans to launch a stablecoin product iUSDe for traditional financial institutions, integrate its stablecoin sUSDe into the Telegram app, and is also building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal based on its own application chain and an on-chain options and structured products protocol Derive.