How does DOGE react after Bitcoin's surge?

Dogecoin (DOGE) ran into obstacles last week when it was rejected at the key resistance zone at the $0.2 mark. Since then, the price has fallen to a local low of $0.17. On Monday, Bitcoin surged from 105,600 to a high of $108,915, before dropping back to $106,631 at the time of writing.

Although the upward momentum may continue, the macro context is still as gloomy as last week. In addition, tensions in the Middle East do not seem to show any signs of cooling down. In this gloomy context, the price action of the leading memecoin has not been able to break out of the downtrend from a long-term perspective.

A recent report has highlighted the "waiting" status of altcoins. The perpetual contract market seems to be preparing for significant volatility. About 70% of altcoins are showing a strong Long bias, while large-cap assets have 60% of traders leaning Long. In fact, the market expects a recovery following last week's "liquidation flood."

Should DOGE Traders Switch to a Bullish Trend?

However, Dogecoin is still carrying a negative tone in the eyes of long-term investors.

In a post on X, analyst Ali Martinez said that the TD Sequential indicator has emitted multiple buy signals on Dogecoin's 12-hour chart. However, as mentioned in previous analyses, Dogecoin's (HTF) large timeframe trend is still in favor of the bears.

Source: AliThe increasing selling pressure shown by the OBV indicator, combined with the negative dynamics from the RSI and the bearish technical structure, means that a breakout above the $0.2 mark will be extremely difficult.

Source: SantimentWhen closely observing the behavior of Dogecoin holders holding for less than six months, it can be seen that a distribution phase is occurring. The average age of coin ( represents the average number of days that the total amount of DOGE is held at the current address) has been continuously decreasing for more than five weeks.

This downtrend indicates that DOGE is being moved out of storage wallets, likely for selling purposes. Additionally, the circulation of "dormant" tokens has increased over the past month, reflecting a surge in on-chain activity.

Meanwhile, the 180-day MVRV ratio is still in the negative, even though this top memecoin is entering the distribution phase.

This could be a signal that makes investors cautious. Although the TD Sequential indicator and the recovery momentum of Bitcoin may urge traders to open Long positions, long-term investors should still be vigilant.

Minh Anh