Bitcoin is on the verge of a major turning point: rise or retreat?

On June 18, Bitcoin (BTC) unexpectedly slipped below the $105,000 mark, as analysts warned that the market may be quietly preparing for a major volatility.

BTC/USDT hourly chart | Source: TradingView## BTC price is "accumulating before a big wave" — Analyst warns

According to data from TradingView, the BTC/USD pair plummeted to a daily low of $103.401 shortly after the Wall Street market opened last night.

Notably, the sequence of 11 consecutive red candles on the hourly chart – a rare phenomenon – has completely stifled the bulls' efforts, amid order book analysis indicating that selling pressure could potentially spread strongly.

"This situation is clear evidence of order book manipulation against BTC," the analysis platform Material Indicators commented on platform X, emphasizing the phenomenon of continuously changing buy liquidity as prices decline.

"If the price breaks below $105,000, prepare for a 'rug pull' ( at the $103,000 level."

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-bcf470365a02b21cafc857c4b139ed0d(BTC/USDT order book liquidity data | Source: Material Indicators/XThe phenomenon of "liquidity spoofing" )liquidity spoofing( – a common trick in the crypto market – is often used by big players to manipulate prices by placing and then canceling large orders to deceive the market.

However, there is still hope for the bulls. "If BTC can surpass the $108,000 threshold, the door to the $110,000 range will be wide open," Material Indicators noted in a previous analysis.

The market remains stable, but volatility is approaching.

The famous analyst Skew is quite optimistic when assessing the overall strength of the market. According to him, Bitcoin investors are currently maintaining a much calmer mindset compared to previous corrections, despite the escalating pressure from the global geopolitical situation.

However, Skew also issued a cautionary warning: a significant volatility may be quietly forming.

"With the current adjustment level only around 3%, the market is still maintaining a relatively stable condition, and there are no clear signs of panic yet. However, in the short time frames, defensive signs have started to appear," he shared on platform X.

Skew emphasizes that significant drops in the past usually have a fluctuation margin of about 5%, accompanied by panic selling, aggressive short orders, and a surge in volatility, trading volume, and selling pressure. "This indicates that a 'big move' is still being plotted and has not yet truly erupted," he concluded.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-47ae2d6f3368c59a42c09d7dd1d4f22d(Bitcoin market data | Source: Skew/X## The USD index being "deeply oversold" suggests a potential recovery.

As gold prices decline and the USD begins to show signs of recovery in a bullish divergence, concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also gradually easing.

In an analysis published on platform X, The Kobeissi Letter — a well-known financial source in the investment community — dismissed the possibility of a conflict between Israel and Iran escalating into a global war.

"Although gold is holding its strength, the market is still telling a familiar story: We are not on the brink of World War III," the article asserts.

"At the same time, oil prices rose by about 2% despite the unresolved tensions between Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. government bonds approached the 4.50% mark, indicating that the market is signaling that the current risks are likely to be short-term in nature, rather than a long-term barrier to the global economy."

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-27723835b30209b03fb1d9a6e776ab25(Hourly XAU/USD Chart | Source: TradingViewThe USD Strength Index )DXY( — often has an inverse relationship with Bitcoin — is showing clear signs of recovery after hitting the lowest low in many years.

"Asset managers are currently betting heavily on the bearish trend of the USD. The last time such a large Short position appeared, the DXY surged significantly," according to strategist Guilherme Tavares.

He added: "Currently, this index is fluctuating near a key support zone, while the RSI )14( has fallen into a deep oversold area, and a very clear bullish divergence signal is appearing."

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-1789f4c2f652c09d07f2c1af2d04336e(US Dollar Index Chart )DXY( Weekly | Source: Guilherme Tavares/XSN_Nour