Solana Trench June New Developments: Pumpfun ICO, Trading Software Chaos and Launchpad Competition

Author: Nico

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

In early April this year, I conducted a quantitative analysis of the current state of the "Solana Meme Coin market" (commonly known as the "trench").

Now let's take another look and see what changes have occurred during this time!

Introduction

Since the last analysis, there have been some new developments in the market:

Rumors about the Pumpfun Token ICO are circulating, and private sales are currently underway;

Axiom has achieved market dominance and launched a new platform;

Competition among major Launchpad platforms is intensifying, while diversification and expansion trends are emerging.

In the past, many trading infrastructures were commonly referred to as "bots," but I believe they can now be more accurately called "terminals." With advancements in technology, many traditional bots have been phased out, and only those targeting mobile, social scenarios, and niche demands remain active.

Pumpfun Token ICO: Market Focus

What we currently know is:

The plan is to raise 1 billion USD, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaching 4 billion USD, and it will be fully released upon launch;

The ICO will be conducted through top centralized exchanges (CEXs) and the Pump.fun platform.

Participating in an ICO requires completing KYC (Know Your Customer) verification;

Early investors in the private placement phase are still required to adhere to the lock-up period rules.

There is likely to be an airdrop event, with an expected airdrop scale of about 10%.

The impact on the "trench":

The release of the Pump Token is likely to become a highly heated market event;

As one of the few tokens on Solana with long-term investment value and mass appeal, Pump Token is expected to create a positive growth flywheel thanks to its revenue model.

In the short term, it may siphon off liquidity from the Solana ecosystem and the "trench" market, but in the long run, if the incentive mechanisms are appropriate, it will have a positive impact on ecological development.

Airdrop activities may create a wealth effect, attracting participation from old users, existing users, and new users.

I expect the FDV of Pump Token to fall within the range of 10-20 billion dollars, not far from HYPE, but higher than ENA, possibly making it into the top 10-20 tokens.

Battle of the Trading Terminal

In the past two months, the activity on all trading terminal platforms has experienced a gradual decline.

Currently, Axiom has surpassed 60% market share, firmly holding the first position, while Photon ranks second, and GMGN, Trojan, and BullX are competing for the remaining market share. Bloom and Bonkbot maintain a certain market relevance, while emerging competitors like Padre and Nova are also starting to attract more attention.

Market Share of Trading Terminal (Snapshot on June 25, 2025)

Axiom: Market Share 61% / Cumulative Fees $137 million / Daily Active Users (DAU) approximately 33,000-45,000

Photon: Market Share 9.9% / Total Fees $410 Million / DAU approximately 20,000 to 30,000

BullX: Market Share 5.8% / Total Fees $197 Million / DAU Approximately 10,000-20,000

GMGN: Market Share 6.8% / Total Fees $78 million / DAU approximately 10,000

Trojan: Market Share 4.8% / Cumulative Fees $187 million / DAU over 20,000

Due to the trading bots and terminals generating approximately 1 billion dollars in revenue, this sector has attracted a large number of competitors. I have spoken to many who intend to develop their own terminals and participate in the competition, but the general consensus is that it is a tough battle as market trading volume is gradually decreasing. However, this situation may change after the release of Pumpfun Token.

It is worth noting that the most popular and profitable platforms do not necessarily have the best user interface, feature set, speed, or data accuracy. However, they have won the market with their excellent distribution capabilities, and that is the key.

I plan to write an article specifically delving into the struggle between technology and distribution capabilities, and how it affects the choices of specific user groups. Stay tuned.

Battle of the Launchpad

During April and May, we witnessed the rise of the following Launchpad platform:

@believeapp and @launchcoin

@bonk_fun

Launch Lab by @RaydiumProtocol

Although these competing Launchpad platforms initially attracted significant attention, their market share is gradually declining. However, the success of tokens like $USELESS on the letsbonk.fun platform has garnered more attention, positioning it as a Launchpad with less competition but more support from the Bonk ecosystem.

Orange (Bonk), Green (Believe), Purple (Raydium Launchlab)

In June, only the bonded coins of the Pumpfun and LetsBonk platforms showed significant activity. From the data, green represents Pumpfun, orange represents LetsBonk, with green occupying the majority of the market, while orange follows. The number of bonded coins on the Pumpfun platform is approximately 200, while the LetsBonk platform is between 10-30. However, the growth rate for both is showing a downward trend.

LetsBonk

On the LetsBonk.fun platform, the total market cap (mcap) of all tokens is less than 200 million dollars, mainly concentrated in the following tokens:

$USELESS: Market cap reached 140 million USD

$HOSICO: Market cap reached 22 million USD

$CryBB: Market cap reached 11 million USD

Among them, $USELESS stands out particularly and has received enthusiastic support and promotion from members of the Bonk community (such as @theunipcs).

Believe

The emergence of the Believe platform can be said to be unexpected yet logical. It focuses on "Internet Capital Markets" and aims to raise funds and increase visibility for startup projects with real use cases through token issuance, no longer limited to mere Meme Coins.

Launch Coin is its official token, which stands out the most, focusing on initiating token listing plans through Twitter. This concept is not new, but the Believe platform aims to change the market rules through innovation.

The platform has introduced restrictions on new token sniping, such as taxing the transactions of the first buyers to penalize those who excessively withdraw liquidity, while encouraging creators to buy and hold their own tokens long-term, theoretically promoting further price increases of the tokens.

This series of measures has brought about a brief but interesting market frenzy. However, Launch Coin remains the primary beneficiary of the Believe ecosystem, absorbing most of the liquidity, while other tokens occasionally experience fluctuations due to surges in demand.

The community has had a lot of discussions and controversies regarding its founder @pasternak (both support and criticism), looking forward to the platform entering the next stage of the flywheel effect. As it stands, relevant efforts are still ongoing.

I recommend keeping an eye on the latest developments of the Believe platform in real time, and suggest checking the following filtering tools:

Believe App Screener (provided by @0x_ultra) and Believe Screener

Launch Lab

The top tokens worth paying attention to on Raydium's Launch Lab platform are actually initiated through the Lets Bonk platform, while Launch Lab serves merely as a backend execution tool, primarily for creating liquidity pools based on Raydium.

Pumpfun's activities and data indicators

As a Launchpad platform, Pumpfun has generated up to 765 million dollars in fee revenue to date, which can almost be considered pure profit, with daily income ranging between 1 to 2 million dollars.

The platform has created a total of 11.5 million tokens, but the issuance rate of tokens has slowed down since the $TRUMP token.

The graduation rate of tokens (successfully meeting goals) has also significantly declined, but it seems to have slightly rebounded and stabilized at around 0.8%.

The trading volume in March and April increased significantly, but has decreased since then, currently showing a downward trend at about 1 billion dollars per week.

The user activity is also decreasing, consistent with the activity levels in March/April, when there was a surge in users, many of whom were new wallets. Now, there are approximately 70K+ active users and 50K+ new users daily.

PumpSwap

On the PumpSwap platform, token creators earned $6.6 million in fee revenue.

The platform's overall revenue reached 93 million USD, of which 73 million USD went to liquidity providers (LPs), and 18 million USD belonged to the platform protocol.

Despite a decline in trading volume, the number of daily trades continues to increase, indicating that PumpSwap's market share in decentralized exchanges (DEX) is gradually expanding.

Interesting market insights

For users who are not familiar with the Solana Meme Coin market, here are some interesting trends:

The daily trading volume starts to rise from 10-11 UTC and peaks between 15-20 UTC, which aligns closely with the working hours of the United States.

Not only does the daily trading volume show periodic fluctuations, but the average trading scale and the number of transactions also follow a similar pattern.

The data shows that the 3-hour moving average of transaction volume (yellow) and the 24-hour moving average (blue) exhibit certain periodic fluctuations.

Number of independent traders

The trading volume on weekends usually decreases by 10-15%, but remains relatively stable during weekdays.

Reference source:

Dune dashboards, provided by @Adam_Tehc, can be found here:

Transaction volume and independent user periodic charts, provided by @idatsy

Some data comes from @whale_hunter_ 's dashboard: