Bitcoin may reach a new peak in Q3, but still carries medium term risks.

Bitcoin is holding steady at $107,000 and expanding its mid-week rally, thanks to a relatively stable market following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.

Although the short-term outlook is somewhat optimistic, according to data from Glassnode, the market is still pricing with a cautious mindset in the medium term.

Market sentiment indicator for options quotes – 25 Delta Skew, this analytics company has warned of a negative trend as the skew for the 3-month and 6-month maturities is both negative.

"The 3-month and 6-month skew remains negative at (-2.6%, -4.3%). Combined with the trading volume focused on Put options, this indicates that short-term panic sentiment has decreased, but medium-term caution still persists."

Source: GlassnodeThis means that the Put is being priced higher than the Call for the end of Q3 and December 2025.

Summer – is the seasonal factor having an impact?

Not surprisingly, the above market sentiment and position - especially with the third quarter - clearly reflect the seasonal characteristics of summer.

According to historical performance data from CoinGlass, summer has always been the worst period for BTC. On average, Bitcoin only achieves a profit of 6% in Q3, while the best quarter is Q4 (85%), followed by Q1 (54%).

Source: CoinGlassHowever, not all months in Q3 have historically performed poorly. In particular, July is an exception, with an average return of 7.5%, indicating that the weakening trend often occurs in August and September.

If history repeats itself, July may bring a slight increase, followed by increased selling pressure. Most analysts believe that this trend stems from low trading activity due to the summer holidays.

However, past performance does not guarantee future results. In fact, investors on Polymarket are betting against the aforementioned seasonal trend. The prediction platform indicates high expectations for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high (ATH) before October, with a probability exceeding 85%.

In other words, the market is expecting BTC to surpass the 112,000 dollar mark in Q3. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards also agrees with this view and predicts that BTC could rise to 115,000 dollars in August.

Source: Stockmoney Lizards Đình Đình