5 Macroeconomic Trends That Could Cause Bitcoin And XRP To Rise Dramatically In 2026

In finance, it is often said: "Water always seeks its own level, and money does too." When liquidity – or the amount of cash in the financial system – becomes abundant, scarce digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP tend to experience a strong bullish trend. As we enter the second half of 2025, there are 5 macro factors converging, paving the way for the recovery of the cryptocurrency market after two years of significant pressure. If this trend continues, 2026 could become the breakout year for Bitcoin and XRP. Here are the reasons why:

1. Global Liquidity is Recovering Liquidity can be simply understood as the total amount of cash that can be spent in the global economy. When central banks inject more money into the financial system – usually by expanding their balance sheets – investors will have more capital to allocate, and high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies will be the most attractive places to invest first. Since mid-2024, the total assets of the three major central banks – the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) – have been continuously increasing over several quarters. The last time global liquidity was pumped heavily ( from March 2020 to April 2021), Bitcoin increased by 500%, while XRP also surged by 483%. If this time central banks continue to "pour wine into the party", the cryptocurrency market is likely to enter a similar bullish cycle again.
2. Standard Interest Rate Will Be Cut Interest rates are an important regulatory tool that affects borrowing costs in the economy. When interest rates are low, money becomes cheaper, encouraging investors to pull out of bonds and seek higher-yield investment channels – including Bitcoin and XRP. Currently, the financial market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates at least 2 times from now until mid-2026. In the last cut in 2019, nearly 1 percentage point, Bitcoin increased by 120% in just 5 months, while XRP also rose by 17%. Although the effect this time may not be exactly the same as before, history shows that the trend of declining interest rates is often a positive catalyst for cryptocurrencies.
3. The Weakening US Dollar – An Opportunity for International Capital Flow Since the beginning of 2025, the Dollar Index (DXY) – a measure of the strength of the USD against a basket of major currencies – has decreased by about 8%, due to concerns about trade tensions and the U.S. federal budget deficit. When the dollar weakens, foreign investors need less local currency to buy digital assets priced in USD like Bitcoin or XRP – increasing global purchasing power. In 2017, when the USD entered a similar downward cycle, the market capitalization of Bitcoin increased by 13.5 times, while XRP increased by 34.6 times. If the trade disputes and fiscal pressures in the US continue, a weak USD will be a "tailwind" for cryptocurrencies.
4. Bond Yields Are Cooling Down Government bonds are considered a safe asset. The higher the bond yield, the less attractive non-yielding assets like Bitcoin become. However, when yields decrease, the yield spread between bonds and crypto narrows, making crypto relatively more attractive. For example, the yield on the 10-year U.S. government bond has decreased from 4.7% at the beginning of 2025 to about 4.3% currently. From the end of 2018 until the yield started to rise sharply at the end of 2021, Bitcoin increased by 572%, while XRP also rose by 84%. If the yield continues to trend downwards, capital may continue to flow into the crypto market.
5. The Real Income of the People is Increasing Consumers tend to invest more when real income ( after inflation is deducted ) improves. And after sufficient allocation to safe assets, the surplus often flows into higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin or XRP. From March 2024 to March 2025, the average hourly income in the US increased by 1.4% after adjusting for inflation. Although there are no large stimulus packages like in the 2020-2021 period, the trend of "thicker wallets" could still generate a significant amount of capital flowing into the cryptocurrency market. Conclusion: Is a Bullish Cycle Forming? Nothing is certain in the financial markets. But when 5 important macro factors converge – increasing liquidity, decreasing interest rates, a weak USD, declining bond yields, and rising incomes – the scenario for a new bull run of Bitcoin and XRP in 2026 is entirely possible. If history repeats itself – even just in part – then early investors who spot the trend will be the biggest winners.