The insider story of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates, the whole world got it wrong.

Recently, Trump has once again started the "attack" on Powell, even saying that his "IQ is not enough." Nevertheless, Powell still insists on "waiting a bit longer."
Powell's explanation to the outside world is that "the inflation effect may also be more persistent," but the fundamental reason is not so; 99% of people are mistaken—the real reason is that Powell wants to "preserve his reputation," both personally and for the Federal Reserve. What he most wants to do now is to maintain his "historical positioning."
Powell's term has entered its "final year," a crucial moment for shaping his historical status and establishing his personal label. The previous round of inflation misjudgment (when he claimed that "inflation is transitory," resulting in significant policy errors) has damaged the overall image of the Federal Reserve (FED). Now he is also facing high-profile pressure from Trump, so from both a personal and overall reputational standpoint for the Federal Reserve (FED), Powell's room for maneuver is actually quite limited.
First, he vigorously distances himself from politics and does not publicly respond to Trump's personal attacks against him. This is not only to protect The Federal Reserve (FED) but also to maintain his personal "historical image."
Second, the "drag" strategy—using phrases like "there is uncertainty regarding inflation" and "data needs further confirmation" to continue buying time. Ensure that in the short term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path appears professional, restrained, and logical, rather than being influenced by emotion or politics. Even if economic data weakens marginally, they are more inclined to "verbally guide ambiguously" rather than "implement substantial easing in conjunction with the market or politics."
The above two points mean that the possibility of significant easing in the short term has greatly decreased. Trump can continue to criticize, the market can continue to speculate, but Powell will "drag, stabilize, and handle it coolly" to maintain the bottom line.
The real turning point may have to wait until: there is a clear change in inflation data, or Trump officially changes personnel. This is not only a choice of monetary policy but also a contest about power, reputation, and the independence of The Federal Reserve (FED). Understanding this is key to grasping the true direction of the global market ahead.
Report Highlights (Ten Thousand Word Report):
1. Exclusive interpretation: Will the Chinese stock market experience another "East rises, West falls"? Will the RMB continue to rise? We rarely shift our focus and for the first time, we place the Chinese market at the beginning of the report. The report also includes predictions for A-shares, gold, crude oil, and the RMB's future points over the next 3 months.
2. The US dollar is plummeting, shaking everything. Who are the real sellers? Will it accelerate the decline? The United States is preparing a "market support combination strike."
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