Bitcoin fails to reach the upper limit of the descending channel; pay attention to the possibility of forming a dip ahead of the PCE announcement | Contribution from a bitbank analyst

## This Week's Weekly Report

The analyst Mr. Hasegawa from the major domestic exchange bitbank illustrates this week's cryptocurrency Bitcoin chart and interprets the future outlook.

Table of Contents

1. Bitcoin On-Chain Data
2. Contribution by bitbank

Bitcoin On-chain Data

BTC trading volume

BTC Trading Volume (Monthly)

Active Address Count

Active Address Count (Monthly)

BTC mining pool withdrawal address

Exchange & Other Services

bitbank Analyst Analysis (Contribution: Tomoya Hasegawa)

This Week's Weekly Report:

This week's Bitcoin (BTC) to yen exchange rate has remained steady, trading around 15.5 million yen as of noon on the 27th.

Following the attack by the United States on Iran's nuclear facilities on the 22nd, the Iranian parliament approved the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the BTC market to drop from 15.1 million yen to as low as 14.37 million yen over the weekend. Meanwhile, optimism is gradually spreading that the Iranian government will not actually block the Strait of Hormuz, and the market attempted to rebound at the beginning of the week.

After that, concerns grew over Iran's retaliatory measures against the United States, leading to a temporary decline in the market. However, as the actual retaliatory measures were very formal, expectations for the resolution of the situation grew, and the market rebounded. Additionally, after President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire, BTC recovered to around 15.5 million yen.

On the 23rd, although there were reports that Israel violated the ceasefire agreement, the escalation of the situation was avoided, and BTC moved steadily despite the heavy upper resistance. This was further supported by Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve suggesting the possibility of resuming interest rate cuts within the year, leading to a gradual increase.

Moreover, after that, Israel and Iran adhered to the ceasefire agreement, and on the 24th, they gradually attempted to return, reaching the 15.7 million yen level by U.S. time.

On the other hand, President Trump’s remarks expressing concern over the resumption of conflict between Israel and Iran have caused the market to lose momentum since mid-week. Since then, it has been fluctuating around 15.5 million yen.

【Figure 1: BTC to JPY Chart (1 Hour)】 Source: created from bitbank.cc

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have retreated, and against the backdrop of comments from Fed Chairman Powell and expectations of interest rate cuts due to weak U.S. indicators, BTC rebounded this week; however, it has barely reached the upper limit of the descending channel since the end of May in dollar terms (Figure 2).

The descending channel is a sign of a resumption of the upward trend, but there is a somewhat weak impression at the moment.

Today (27th), we are awaiting the May U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator, but amid strong expectations for early interest rate cuts, the market is anticipating a slight acceleration in growth.

In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) both confirmed an acceleration in growth, but the results were below market expectations, which was positively received by the BTC market. However, if the growth of the PCE is confirmed while a September rate cut is rapidly being priced in, it could dampen market expectations.

【Figure 2: BTC to USD Chart (Daily)】 Source: Created by Glassnode

On the other hand, the Republican Party in the U.S. Senate was aiming for a vote on the "Trump Tax Reduction Bill" by Independence Day, but the schedule may be delayed due to the refusal of Medicaid cuts by Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.

If the bill is passed, it was expected that money would flow from dollar-denominated assets into BTC due to concerns over the expansion of the U.S. federal government's debt, but it can be said that such expectations are also receding.

Therefore, at first glance, BTC/USD may appear to be on the verge of a descending channel breakout, but it is important to also be aware of the possibility of a temporary pullback forming in the near term.

Moreover, on July 24, the special measures for the suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling will reach their deadline, and next month, new developments in U.S. cryptocurrency regulations are also anticipated, making a breakout from the descending channel a matter of time.

Contributor: Yuya Hasegawa After completing graduate school in the UK, I worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and cryptocurrency market at a venture company composed of former financial institution employees. Since 2019, I have been a market analyst at Bitbank Inc. I have provided comments to major domestic financial media and have numerous contributions to overseas media. List of Past Reports