Bitcoin: Is a new historical high about to come?

Written by: Kosta Gushterov, Coindoo

Compiled by: Jessica, Techub News

Bitcoin research expert Axel Adler Jr. points out that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of entering a stable consolidation phase, with conditions maturing for a new all-time high. His analysis indicates that the current bull market cycle, which started in November 2022, has a solid foundation.

Key Cycle Characteristics Adler emphasized that there were only two significant corrections of over 30% in this cycle, occurring in August 2024 and April 2025, respectively. Despite experiencing deep pullbacks, Bitcoin quickly recovered and continued to reach new highs, while moderate corrections of 10-20% became a classic washout market to maintain the long-term upward trend.

Narrow pullback and strong support at $96,000 Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in the range of $100,000 to $108,000, with the maximum recent pullback only at 4.7%. Adler specifically pointed out that even when measured using the weekly simple moving average (SMA), the current decline is only 7%, indicating that the market is in a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal.

"Every time the pullback magnitude gradually narrows, it confirms that the market is becoming increasingly mature," Adler said. He added that if there are no major negative factors, the key support level of $96,000 will help push the price to new highs.

Exchange traffic reveals supply tightening Adler also observed significant changes in the capital flow of centralized exchanges (CEX): the daily average turnover of BTC ( inflow + outflow ) has dropped to 40,000 coins, setting a ten-year low. This clearly indicates that investors are shifting towards long-term holding, and the reduced market circulation lays the groundwork for a liquidity-driven price surge.

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The weekly net outflow remains at -4,300 coins, continuing the trend of decreasing exchange inventory. The 30-day moving average of inflows/outflows reflects the levels last seen at the beginning of the bull market at the end of 2023, indicating that even with short-term price consolidation, market demand remains strong.

Market Outlook: New highs in sight Based on the narrowing of callbacks, the tightening supply from exchanges, and solid structural support, Adler concludes that as long as the momentum continues and there are no macro shocks, Bitcoin is about to embark on a new round of increases, with historical highs possibly within reach.