Will Bitcoin rise again?
BTC

What is the upper limit?

Bitcoin can currently replace official fiat currencies in some countries for purchasing goods and financial transactions. At the same time, the total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, making it scarcer than gold. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is seen as having the potential to become a global "store of value currency," capable of hedging against the risks of excessive issuance of the dollar and others. As a rapidly growing asset, Bitcoin possesses characteristics of commodities (similar to gold) while also embodying the hopes of emerging blockchain technology!

Whether Bitcoin can truly become a global "store of value currency" is closely related to the development of digital currencies, changes in regulatory policies, and other factors.

Different institutions have varying predictions for the "bull market" peak this time. The Standard Chartered Bank's digital asset research team expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing that U.S. investors are accelerating the reallocation from sovereign assets to non-sovereign assets.

The Bernstein analyst is optimistic about a $200,000 price by the end of next year based on the approval of ETFs and friendly regulatory expectations, and forecasts it could reach $500,000 by 2029.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, stated at the Davos Forum that once sovereign wealth funds and institutions begin to allocate small-scale investments, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $700,000, highlighting the premium effect of large institutional allocations.

Looking at the historical four-year halving cycles, the previous two peaks were approximately $20,000 and $60,000. If we project using the Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT) model, the reasonable upper limit for this round is in the range of $200,000 to $500,000, which is roughly in line with the expectations of the aforementioned institutions.

However, the pullback coexists with volatility risk. Closely monitoring macro policy dynamics and regulatory developments is key to seizing investment opportunities in the next phase.