Market Observation Weekly Report【6.9 - 6.13】: Geopolitical disturbances and cautious capital resonate, Mainstream Token fluctuates and adjusts, market consolidates at high positions.

The turbulent geopolitical situation has triggered market fluctuations, with mainstream cryptocurrencies undergoing volatile adjustments and the market consolidating at high levels

Macroeconomic situation triggers fluctuating emotions:

• The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a brief market flight to safety, a decrease in volatility, and an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, causing investors' sentiment to become more cautious and wait-and-see.

The flow of funds shows marginal improvement but lacks sustainability:

• Cryptocurrency ETFs returned to net inflows but momentum slowed, the growth rate of stablecoin issuance has fallen back, and the funding attitude is cautious.

Divergence in Mainstream Cryptocurrency Trends:

• Bitcoin has pulled back after a surge, Ethereum is catching up but lacks momentum, institutional investors continue to increase their holdings, and the overall structure is slightly neutral to strong.

Low Market Cap Token Liquidity Marginally Improves but Faces Resistance in Price Increase:

• The TOTAL2 index has rebounded but faced resistance and is retreating again, the market share of small-cap tokens has stopped declining and is fluctuating, and the on-chain prosperity index is at 53, still in a weak range.
• The current market is in the final stage of consolidation. In the short term, we need to wait for capital breakthroughs and patiently observe the strengthening of small-cap token structures and the signs of capital returning to mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

• Geopolitical Situation: The tensions in the Middle East have escalated, but have not evolved into a full-scale war, lasting for about two weeks.
• Market Dynamics: Oil prices rise due to safe-haven sentiment, Bitcoin falls back to $105,000, US stocks rebound, volatility decreases, and the market stabilizes.
• Economic Policy: Expectations for a rate cut in July are rising as the Federal Reserve weighs inflation against economic growth.

2. Fund Flow Analysis and Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Structure

External Fund Flow

• ETF Funds: This week inflows reached $2.8 billion, a significant increase.
• Stablecoin: This week, an additional issuance of 2.3 billion USD was made, with an average daily issuance of 321 million USD, which is at a relatively high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• **Premium in OTC: ** The premium of stablecoins continues to rise.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Analysis: The market is in a volatile upward range.
• On-chain chip distribution: Chips over $103,000 are enhanced.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Price trend weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC remains volatile, with funds continuously flowing into BTC.
• On-chain data: The increase in active addresses may indicate that the stage of bottoming out has been completed.

Macroeconomic Review

Geopolitical Focus

• Geographical and Military Factors:

The terrain in the Middle East is complex, making conventional military conflicts difficult, and the situation may evolve into a long-term low-intensity confrontation.

• Scale and Duration of Conflict:

The conflict is expected to last for about two weeks, mainly involving limited military strikes, with a low likelihood of full-scale war.

• Impact Assessment:

The current situation mainly affects market sentiment, and the risk of substantial military escalation is limited.

• Oil Price Fluctuation:

The rise in oil prices is mainly due to risk aversion, while actual supply remains unaffected.

• Stock Market and Cryptocurrency Market:

U.S. stock pre-market declines narrowed and rebounded, with Bitcoin rising to $105,000, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. Volatility receded from the morning peak, oscillating within a $1,000 range in the afternoon.

• Volatility Change:

Compared to the beginning of the year, the market has reacted more rationally to geopolitical events, with reduced volatility.

• Institutional Holdings Impact:

The increase in institutional holdings has led to a decrease in circulation, with the market structure approaching that of the US stock market. The ETF lock-up effect is significant, enhancing market stability.

• Market Rhythm:

The correlation between Bitcoin's trend and the US stock market has increased, and the long decision-making cycle of institutions has led to a reduction in circulating chips, but in the short term, it is still driven by emotions.

• Comparison with Other Cryptocurrencies:

Ethereum and Solana still experience high volatility due to the lack of large ETFs and deep institutional participation.