Trump has achieved his first successful deal: what will happen next with the crypto market?

Investors reacted violently to the trade deal that Trump made with Vietnam. The terms for the U.S. look extremely favorable. Vietnamese goods exported will be subject to a 20% tariff, while re-exported goods — those exported for resale to other countries — will face a 46% tariff. American exports to Vietnam will be exempt from tariffs. This news is significant as this Asian country became the sixth largest supplier of goods to the U.S. last year. The news of the deal became the main catalyst that pushed Bitcoin above $110,000 during the week.

Bullish sentiment is confirmed by BTC reserves on exchanges. According to analysts from the Glassnode platform, in June the figure decreased by 9.4% to 2.8 million. This means that only about 14% of all bitcoins in circulation are currently held on cryptocurrency exchanges. The last time this was observed was in 2017.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to show positive dynamics. Last week, exchange-traded funds again recorded an influx of funds amounting to $769.6 million. Interestingly, on July 1, there was an outflow of money totaling $342.25 million. This broke a series of fifteen consecutive trading sessions during which there was an influx of funds.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin continues to remain in a sideways movement for a month and a half, alternately moving between support levels — $100,000 and resistance — around $110,500. The weakness of the trend is confirmed by the drop in the ADX indicator to 11.54. The buyers of Bitcoin still have a slight initiative.
The Fear and Greed Index has increased by eight points compared to last week. The current value is 73. This indicates that greed is prevailing over fear in the sentiments of crypto investors.

Ethereum rose by 6.45% from June 27 to July 4. The weekly growth of ETH was achieved due to a single trading session on Wednesday, July 2, when the second-largest cryptocurrency surged by 6.89%. On the other days, the price of Ethereum did not change by more than 3.5% by the end of trading.
The growth of ETH was supported by the records achieved by the second-largest cryptocurrency in June across several metrics. CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman (Carmelo Aleman) noted that addresses prone to accumulating Ether are holding its maximum amount in history — over 22.7 million coins. It is worth mentioning that in June, the figure increased by almost 36%. Additionally, on July 1, a record was also updated for the amount of Ether in staking. It now stands at over 35.56 million ETH. Much of these figures were achieved thanks to the activity of corporate investors.

Ethereum is also rising due to the activity of spot ETFs on ETH. The past week marked the eighth consecutive week that exchange-traded funds recorded an inflow of funds. During this period, spot ETFs accumulated over $1.9 billion.
The positive dynamics of Ethereum are not only related to the actions of large capital. Ethereum remains one of the most developing networks. Last week, the cryptocurrency ranked second in developer activity, recording 225 commits. Only the Cardano blockchain was higher with 244 commits.

From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum, like Bitcoin, continues to trade sideways. However, the bulls have a clear reason for optimism. A so-called golden cross has formed on the daily chart — a situation where the fast 50-day moving average ( marked in blue ) has crossed the slow 200-day moving average ( marked in orange ) from below to above. This typically serves as a harbinger of further growth. For now, confirmation is awaited — a breakout above the resistance level of $2,880.3. The support level remains at $2,112.

The price of Shiba Inu rose by 2.39% from June 27 to July 4. The meme coin managed to stay above the low reached on June 22. However, it cannot be said that the bulls have a decisive advantage over the bears: during the week, there were three days of decline against four sessions of growth.

Shiba Inu has been experiencing a certain surge in network activity since the end of June. The transaction volume has reached one trillion tokens. However, this can hardly be called a signal for growth. More often, this situation heralds an increase in price volatility.

Additionally, the week was marked by a significant outflow of SHIB from cryptocurrency exchanges. One user withdrew 2 billion tokens worth just over $2.4 million in four days. Usually, withdrawals from centralized trading platforms (CEX) indicate investors' desire to accumulate cryptocurrency in anticipation of further growth.

Analysts from the Santiment platform believe that Shiba Inu is not the best choice for retail investors. The reason is that the ten largest holders control nearly 62% of the total supply of the meme coin. This situation can lead to sharp price fluctuations, as well as various types of market manipulation.

From a technical analysis standpoint, Shiba Inu remains in a downtrend. This is supported by the fact that the price of the meme coin is below the 50-day moving average ( marked in blue ). It is worth noting: in recent days, when the coin has risen slightly in price, there has been an increase in trading volume, with the figure for July 3 becoming the highest since February 26. This serves as a positive signal for the bulls. The nearest support and resistance levels are $0.00001031 and $0.00001215 respectively.