Bitcoin is still rising, but on-chain signals warn of risks.

Bitcoin is holding strong on the 365-day SMA of the MVRV ratio — a milestone considered a reliable anchor point in the cycle. The price has surpassed this threshold for 12 days and is currently being closely followed as a continuation trend indicator.

With BTC still holding above $108,000, the current model is reflecting long-term confidence, as long as the MVRV > SMA365 condition continues to be maintained. However, that confidence needs to be backed by actual on-chain data. Price alone cannot sustain upward momentum.

Source: CryptoQuant## Are investors taking profits or preparing for the next rally?

The Net Realized Profit/Loss Index (NRPL) increased by 2.27%, with a total net profit recorded of approximately 293 million dollars. This reflects a moderate profit-taking cycle, but it is not strong enough to trigger a wave of sell-offs.

In fact, this behavior often occurs in the middle of the cycle – where traders take partial profits while still holding firm belief in a larger uptrend. The absence of large-scale sell-offs indicates that investors still expect BTC to continue rising.

Source: CryptoQuant## Is the decline in network activity a concern for the Bitcoin bulls?

This is the part that makes the chart difficult to predict.

According to data from Santiment, the number of BTC transactions has decreased to 85,900, while network growth has also dropped to 65,800 — both are near their lowest levels for the month.

These declines indicate that the number of new participants is decreasing and on-chain interactions are weakening. While this may be a warning signal, it also shows that the short-term speculative group has been eliminated.

Therefore, the bulls may view this as a "reset" phase, rather than a breakdown. However, if network activity continues to remain low for an extended period, the upward momentum may weaken.

Currently, the fact that prices remain stable despite these weakening signals indicates a discrepancy between the level of actual acceptance and market valuation.

Source: Santiment## The hype surrounding Bitcoin

The dominance rate of BTC on social media has surged to 34.92%, the highest since the beginning of 2025. This upward momentum reflects the growing interest from the market, often associated with speculative bullish sentiment.

However, in the past, such spikes have often coincided with local peaks, especially when not supported by strong on-chain data. Therefore, the increased level of attention can be a double-edged sword. While it helps attract interest and new capital flows, it also increases the level of market volatility.

Source: Santiment## Will the price structure and RSI indicator support the breakout?

At the time of writing, BTC is still holding above both the 9-day EMA and the 21-day EMA, while the RSI is hovering around 55, indicating slight bullish momentum. This structure reflects a stable technical situation, as the EMA lines are acting as dynamic support. However, the momentum remains fragile.

To attract new capital flows, the price needs to exceed the $110,000 mark and the RSI must surpass the 60 threshold. If these conditions are not met, the sideways trend may continue. However, the EMA lines currently serve as a solid launching pad, giving the bulls a chance to restart the rally if market sentiment improves and trading volume returns.

Source: TradingView## Can Bitcoin maintain an upward trend?

Although on-chain activity is quite sluggish, the main structural signals of Bitcoin remain stable. Indicators such as the MVRV ratio, EMA lines, and the slight increase in NRPL suggest that the bulls have not yet lost their dominance.

However, the declining number of transactions along with the increasing social dominance suggests the underlying fragility of BTC still holding an upward trend but not invincible. If the trading volume recovers and on-chain activities become active again, the market may witness another upward wave.

Until then, patience and caution remain the priority strategy.

Đình Đình