Market Trends: Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Monetary Policy Expectations Drive Risk Assets to Rise

Macroeconomic Situation

Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, significantly easing geopolitical tensions and boosting market risk appetite. Crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, while gold briefly dipped below the $3300 mark.

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated in a congressional hearing that, while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, more data is needed to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He pointed out that if inflation pressures are under control, there would be "earlier rather than later rate cuts," but the current strong economy does not require hasty action, while also noting that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying a rate cut.

The market interpreted this as a dovish stance, combined with a reduction in geopolitical risks, driving a broad surge in U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high, the Dow rose 500 points in a single day, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in sync with the dollar.

It is worth noting that U.S. shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional energy price fluctuation adjustment mechanism.

Cryptocurrency Market

A trading platform is seeking approval from US regulators to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks enable T+0 settlement, lower barriers to entry, reduced costs, and round-the-clock trading. If the plan is approved, it will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading space, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms.

After the new management of the US regulatory agency took office, there has been a change in its regulatory attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry. Not only did it withdraw lawsuits against multiple cryptocurrency companies, but it also established a working group to formulate regulations for digital assets. In the future, it may gradually accept tokenized stock services, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading.

Bitcoin broke through $106,000 under favorable macro conditions, but its performance is relatively restrained. The 13% rise year-to-date contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting the market's caution towards structural changes. Currently, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the spot price of Bitcoin has reached 14.5%, and if it breaks through 15%, the market may experience significant volatility.

On the technical analysis front, multiple analysts believe that Bitcoin may consolidate at current levels, and if it breaks through $107,000, it is expected to reach $110,000; otherwise, it may fall back below $102,000.

Regarding Ethereum, a trading platform experienced a large-scale withdrawal of funds on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform, indicating that trader sentiment may have shifted from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. As the capital rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may experience a significant rise, with its profit supply ratio being far lower than that of Bitcoin, demonstrating potential for catch-up growth.

However, there are also analysts who hold a different view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break through the $3000 mark for over 20 consecutive weeks, which has damaged market confidence and faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return above $3000 in the short term.

Market Performance

Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), daily spot trading volume $27.86 billion

Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), Daily Spot Trading Volume is $15.253 billion

Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)

Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei

Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%

24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751

Sector rise and fall: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $187 million, including $34.3663 million in BTC liquidations and $68.176 million in ETH liquidations.

BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (105782.52 USD), lower channel line (103687.82 USD)

ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2485.15 USD), lower channel line (2435.94 USD)

ETF Capital Flow

Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)

Ethereum ETF: +71.2379 million USD

Important Event Outlook

• A trading platform: H contract and Alpha trading are scheduled to open on June 25 at 17:30 and 17:00 respectively.
• The Kroma L2 network will shut down on June 26, $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum.
• A trading platform will launch Sahara AI on June 26 (SAHARA)
• The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the semiannual monetary policy report (June 25, 22:00)

Token Unlock Information

• Venom (VENOM): Approximately 59.26 million tokens will be unlocked at 4 PM on June 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulation, with a value of about 10 million USD.
• AltLayer (ALT): On June 25th at 6 PM, approximately 240 million tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 6.83% of the current circulation, valued at around 6.7 million USD.
• IOTA (IOTA): Approximately 15.16 million tokens will be unlocked at 8 AM on June 25, accounting for 0.39% of the current circulating supply, worth about $2.3 million.
• Velo (VELO): Approximately 182 million tokens will be unlocked on June 26 at 8 AM, accounting for 2.47% of the current circulation, valued at around 2.1 million USD.
• Blast (BLAST): Approximately 1.05 billion tokens will be unlocked on June 26 at 10 PM, accounting for 34.98% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $22.5 million.
• Undeads Games (UDS): On June 26th at 8 AM, approximately 2.15 million tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 2.13% of the current circulating supply, valued at around $2.3 million.

Top 500 Market Cap Largest Rise

NEM (XEM) rise 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) rise 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) rise 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) rise 18.45%, Apu Apustaja (APU) rise 15.91%.

Industry Dynamics

• A large holder has increased their ETH short position again in the early morning, with the current position valued at $122 million.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 12,207 ETH with an investment of $30.67 million, raising its total holdings to 188,478 coins.
• Nano Labs announced a $500 million convertible note private placement for BNB strategic reserves, with the stock price rising over 150%.
• ProCap invested $387 million to acquire 3,724 coins of Bitcoin
• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate $10 million to purchase Bitcoin.
• Trump calls for interest rate cuts of at least 2 to 3 percentage points.
• Grayscale Space and Time (SXT) trust registered in Delaware
• The co-founder of Celestia stated that they have over 100 million USD in funds, enough to support operations for more than 6 years.
• A suspected ConsenSys-related address has purchased 3,704 ETH again, worth 8.91 million dollars.