Unlocking TRUMP-coins: why the price barely budged

The unlocking turned out to be quite significant — 90 million TRUMP ( approximately $900 million at the exchange rate on July 18 ) was added to circulation, which is equivalent to ~45% of the previous circulating supply. It seemed that selling pressure should have driven the price down, but in practice, the chart barely played a "roller coaster" and already after a day returned to the range of $11–12. Below — what was revealed from on-chain data, news feeds, and social media.

1. Where did the unlocked coins go

Most of it has settled in "internal" wallets. 76% of the total supply is now controlled by four addresses under the label CIC Digital — a legal entity associated with the project team. The unlocked package went there, not to exchanges — analytical services did not record any outflow to CEX.

Movement limit. According to the vesting schedule, these wallets have the right to hold but not sell coins for another three months. In fact, the trading volume increased nominally, rather than genuinely for the market.

2. Accumulation, not dumping

In the two days following the event, only two transactions greater than 20 million TRUMP were found, and both were from exchanges to cold addresses, meaning they were for withdrawal rather than unloading.

The exchange reserves indicator continues to decline: the sellers' shelf has not been replenished.

3. The buyer was ready

The unlock was announced back in May; the market clearly "played" it in advance. The spot volume in the week leading up to the date nearly doubled, while the futures open interest hit a record $310 million. Market participants were already positioned at the bottom of the order book.

In April, when the project unlocked 40 million coins, the price rose by 80% in a week — the local precedent strengthened the belief that "unlock = chance for a pump."

4. A strong information flow has overshadowed fear

On the same day, the ProShares futures ETF launched on the CME, where TRUMP is included in the "Election-20" basket. Hedge funds discussed this driver, rather than the risk of a sell-off.

The unlocked package was accompanied by news of additional investment of $100 million from Justin Sun and partners — the positive buzz mitigated the negative aspect of the unlock.

5. General conclusion
The unlock did not impact the price, because essentially:

The offer was "paper" - coins went to friendly wallets and remain off the market.

Demand was prepared in advance: traders placed limit orders, hoping to "buy the dip," but it didn't happen.

The informational background (ETF, political hype, a large private investor ) outweighed fear.

Currently, the token is traded as a media drive + speculation. It's worth monitoring the actual entries of TRUMP on exchanges and the calendar of the next "real" relocation, when the CIC Digital addresses will gain the right to move. If these coins appear on CEX — then noticeable pressure may begin. For now, the market has perceived the event as neutral, and in some places even bullish.