Recently, the financial market has shown a significant rebound, and expectations for interest rate cuts are continuing to heat up. The latest analysis indicates that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September is becoming the benchmark expectation in the market, although it is still somewhat underestimated. Notably, three Federal Reserve officials have recently begun to predict that a rate cut may occur in September, even though these officials explicitly supported maintaining the interest rate at the last FOMC meeting. The latest non-farm payroll data seems to have prompted a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's stance.

Market observers speculate that Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Waller, may soon publicly support a 50 basis point rate cut. Currently, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) expects the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September to exceed 93%, indicating that a 25 basis point cut has already been largely priced in by the market. If the final rate cut reaches 50 basis points, it could trigger a bull market brought about by the rate cuts.

Meanwhile, there are reports that the current president is considering appointing a new Federal Reserve chairman ahead of schedule. Four candidates have now entered the final consideration list, with Kevin Warsh and Hassett leading with probabilities of 30% and 26%, respectively. Notably, Hassett and another candidate, Malpass, are considered to be relatively more dovish. If either of these two candidates ultimately becomes the new Federal Reserve governor, it could bring significant benefits to the financial markets. This appointment decision may be revealed soon, and the market is paying close attention to it.