Crypto Assets Market Dynamics and Outlook

Market Observation

The renovation cost issues at the Federal Reserve headquarters have sparked a political storm, with Trump personally visiting the headquarters to pressure Chairman Powell and calling for interest rate cuts. Although Trump has temporarily shelved the idea of firing Powell, White House officials and Republican figures continue to use this matter to attack Powell's credibility, attempting to influence interest rate policy. Analysts believe this is an unconventional public opinion battle by Trump to promote interest rate cuts, while also possibly diverting public attention from other controversies.

However, the current financial environment in the United States has become extremely loose: the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index has hit a three-year low, major stock indices continue to reach new highs, money market fund sizes have reached $7.1 trillion, and household deposits remain high. This flood of liquidity puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma—inflation is still above target and the labor market is strong, but the government is demanding significant interest rate cuts citing high national debt issuance pressures, and analysts are concerned that cutting rates at this time could exacerbate stock market bubbles.

In the field of stablecoins, a senior analyst predicts that their future applications will focus on three major areas: B2B settlements, Crypto Assets and DeFi ecosystems, and sovereign financial expansion. Stablecoins, combined with smart contracts, can significantly enhance cross-border settlement efficiency and have become a core liquidity infrastructure in the crypto ecosystem. Notably, stablecoins pegged to local currencies may become important tools for promoting the internationalization of local currencies and de-dollarization.

For Bitcoin, multiple analysts have pointed out the short-term retracement risk. The key support level is around $115,000, and a break below it could trigger further declines. However, the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic, with one analyst setting a target price of $200,000.

In contrast, Ethereum shows relative strength, with solid support in the $2000 to $3000 range. However, some analysts warn of a potential short-term pullback, as the soaring borrowing costs may force leveraged traders to close their positions. Historical data shows that Ethereum typically performs better in the fourth quarter.

Market funds are flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other altcoins, but a full "altcoin season" has not yet been confirmed. The NFT market has also seen some large transactions, indicating interest from institutional investors. In addition, after a well-known entrepreneur announced the launch of an AI version of a short video application, related tokens surged temporarily.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $115,774, year-to-date +23.39%
• Ethereum: $3,638.16, Year-to-Date +8.78%
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 60.8%, ETH 11.6%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 201,000 people globally were liquidated, with a total amount of 702 million US dollars.

ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$227 million, reversing the trend of outflows for three consecutive days.
• Ethereum ETF: +$231 million, continuous net inflow for 15 days

Today's Outlook

• A certain trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts.
• Multiple projects are about to undergo token unlocks, involving a significant amount.
• Among the top 100 by market capitalization, some NFT and meme coin projects have experienced significant declines.

Hot News

• A payment company's co-founder is suspected of transferring a large amount of XRP to the exchange.
• Multiple institutions have launched new Crypto Assets investment products.
• A certain foundation plans to raise a large amount of funds for its ecosystem.
• A publicly traded company makes a significant purchase of NFTs and Ethereum
• New compliant stablecoin project launched
• The next compensation plan of a certain exchange is announced.