The Fed's policy direction draws follow; this week's economic data and the Central Bank annual meeting become the focus.

Recently, U.S. economic data has been mixed, triggering ongoing fluctuations in the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. The latest data shows that consumer confidence has unexpectedly declined for the first time since April, while inflation expectations have risen. Against this backdrop, the U.S. dollar index has fallen for two consecutive weeks, dipping below the 98 mark. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the long end performing particularly well, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a two-week high.

Investors will closely watch the upcoming annual policy seminar in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, hoping to gain clues about the Fed's future rate cut path. Here are several key time points that the market will focus on this week:

• On Wednesday evening, a certain Fed governor will give a speech at the blockchain seminar.
• In the early hours of Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
• Early Thursday morning, the 2027 FOMC voting members will provide insights on the economic outlook.
• On Thursday evening, the United States will release the latest weekly initial jobless claims.
• Late Friday night, the Fed chairman will deliver an important speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

In addition, the PMI data for Europe and the United States to be released next week will provide more information on how trade tariffs are affecting the economy. An analyst from a financial institution pointed out, "With the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures, the input cost section of the PMI survey, especially the data from the United States, should be able to initially reflect the impact of tariff increases on prices."

These economic indicators and policy signals will jointly shape the market's expectations for the Fed's future monetary policy direction, and investors need to closely monitor the developments of these key events.