Cardano (ADA) price movement analysis: Can it break through the key resistance level to challenge the 1 dollar mark?

As of the latest data on August 25, 2025, Gate exchange shows that the trading price of Cardano (ADA) is approximately $0.88, with a slight daily fall of 0.3%.

Despite the recent pullback, the ADA price remains stable above the 50-day moving average ($0.79), indicating relative stability in the short-term trend. Currently, ADA is fluctuating in a narrow range between $0.85 and $0.93, with the market in an accumulation phase.

Current Market Situation and Price Levels

The recent price performance of ADA highlights the delicate balance of the market. After a strong rebound from a low of $0.60 in July to a high of $0.97, ADA faced selling pressure.

The current price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating an impending breakout. Both bulls and bears are fiercely contesting at key price levels. $0.93 has become an important resistance point, with sellers showing strong defense at this level.

On the other hand, buyers are trying to maintain the important support level of $0.85. This balance keeps ADA at a critical price level, and any breakout in either direction could determine its next move.

The 4-hour chart shows that ADA is moving within a gradually converging triangle. The current price is slightly above the channel support level, while the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.84 provides additional support for the bulls.

Technical Indicator Analysis

From a technical indicator perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of ADA is currently at 46, reflecting that the market momentum is in a neutral state. This further confirms the view that ADA may continue consolidating in the current range.

Bollinger Band analysis shows that the price is at the 62% position of the middle band, with the upper band at $0.973 forming the first level of resistance, and the middle band at $0.906 being the intraday support level.

The volume profile shows that the POC (point of control) at $0.9168 has become a market value anchor, with a trading volume of 1.236 billion at this level. The current price is approaching this area, and the long-short balance is about to break.

High volume nodes (HVN) are concentrated in the range of 0.900 - 0.921 USD, with total transactions exceeding 400 million, providing support for short-term pullbacks. In contrast, low volume nodes (LVN) are in the range of 0.761 - 0.694 USD, with transactions below 70 million. If it falls below 0.86 USD, it may quickly drop to this area.

Institutional Funds and Whale Activity

Institutional demand for ADA continues to grow in 2025. Data shows that institutional inflows have reached approximately 73 million USD, with total custody holdings exceeding 900 million USD.

Large investors allocate ADA assets based on structural value rather than short-term speculation. When assets demonstrate liquidity, reliable infrastructure, and a mature ecosystem, institutions typically expand their risk exposure.

Cardano meets these requirements with stable trading volume and ongoing development activity. The latest on-chain data shows that Cardano whales have accumulated 100 million ADA in the last 24 hours.

This large-scale accumulation coincides with ADA approaching a key resistance level, adding weight to the bullish technical setup. Historically, aggressive whale buying behavior often precedes price fluctuations of Cardano.

Network Performance and Ecosystem Development

The Cardano network processed over 112 million transactions in 2025, with average transaction fees remaining below $0.25. This efficiency enables Cardano to be applied in scenarios beyond speculation, such as payments and decentralized finance.

Compared to other blockchains where fees often skyrocket during network congestion, Cardano maintains affordable costs. Analysts believe that consistently low fees are crucial for the adoption of enterprise use cases.

In terms of ecosystem development, Cardano's DeFi ecosystem total locked value (TVL) has now exceeded 460 million USD. Protocols like Liqwid and Indigo continue to attract users, driving on-chain demand and supporting price stability.

The upcoming Chang hard fork marks Cardano's transition to the "Voltaire" era—unlocking on-chain governance and community-led development. This shift towards decentralization may enhance investor confidence and support the valuation of ADA.

Future Price Predictions and Potential Targets

Analysts are optimistic about Cardano's future price. Crypto Patel predicts that ADA could reach $10 by 2025 through an ascending channel and accumulation zone.

This ambitious goal requires a strong altcoin season, mass adoption, and overcoming key resistance levels such as $1.10 and $2.90 to be realized.

Gemini's AI analysis platform predicts that Cardano may reach $3 before the end of the year (a 210% return from current levels). This prediction is based on two main technical patterns: the breakout of a long-term descending channel and the re-establishment of a market structure with higher highs and higher lows.

In the short term, analysts consensus predicts that ADA may reach 1.05 USD within the next week, an increase of 14% from the current price; while the medium-term (one month) forecast target is between 1.05 USD and 1.18 USD.

Longer-term forecasts use Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci extension analysis to outline price targets ranging from $2.15 to $26.16. These predictions suggest that ADA may be in the early stages of an extended bull market cycle.

Risk Factors and Challenges

Despite the bullish predictions, investors must be aware of the potential risks. Cardano's historical performance has lagged behind competitors like Ethereum.

ADA is still over 70% lower than its historical high of $3.10, while Ethereum is only 15% below its peak. There are challenges in wider adoption.

Cardano's research-driven development has not yet translated into widespread adoption, especially in the DeFi space. Faster, more scalable alternatives like Solana have already taken precedence.

Short-term price movements are largely influenced by the performance of Bitcoin and macroeconomic factors. If the TVL (Total Value Locked), real-world usage, or institutional adoption does not significantly increase, ADA may struggle to justify more aggressive price targets in the current cycle.

On the downside risk, if ADA fails to hold the current support level of $0.92 (which coincides with the SMA 7), it may fall towards the SMA 20 at $0.81. The key support level is at $0.68, representing an immediate support level in the technical data.

Future Outlook

Technical analysis shows that ADA may fluctuate between 0.91 and 0.97 USD in the short term. A breakthrough at 0.97 USD could open the door to test the resistance levels of 1.00 USD and 1.03 USD, while a drop below 0.91 USD may test the support levels of 0.88 USD and 0.83 USD.

Institutional inflows have reached 73 million dollars, and whales have increased their holdings by 100 million ADA within 24 hours. These factors support the price outlook for ADA. The network processed 112 million transactions, and the average fee remained below 0.25 dollars, indicating the fundamental health of the network.

Looking ahead, market consensus leans towards ADA testing the $3 mark before the end of the year, but this requires a favorable market environment and coordination with its own ecological development.