On-chain data for the 24th week: a large number of outflows of spot goods, but the selling pressure has decreased

Week in Review

From June 6th to June 12th this week, the highest price of rock sugar orange was around $27355, and the lowest price was close to $25351, with a volatility of about 7.33%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around $26770, which will have certain support or pressure.

analyze:

24000 - 29000 about 3.22 million pieces;

18500 - 23500 About 2.09 million pieces.

The probability of not falling below 18000~22000 in the short term is 58%;

Among them, the probability of not breaking through 26500-29000 in the short term is 71%.

Important news aspects

Economic news

1. The United States:

U.S. wholesale inventories fell 0.1% on a monthly basis in April 2023, less than the previous forecast for a 0.2% decline. Wholesale inventories jumped 6.3% from a year earlier.

The Fed's second most important interest rate decision, the probability that the Fed's interest rate will remain unchanged in June is 71.3%.

In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 261,000, which was higher than the expected value of 235,000 and higher than the previous value of 232,000.

2. EU side:

In the first quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP in the euro area fell by 0.1%, while EU GDP rose by 0.1%.

The European Union's consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 8.3% in March 2023, down from 9.9% in the previous month.

3. Asia:

Growth in developing Asia is forecast at 4.8 percent this year and in 2024, up from 4.2 percent last year.

The recovery in China and demand in India will be the main growth support for the region this year and next.

4. Gary Gensler, director of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC): The vast majority of encrypted tokens meet the investment contract test.

5. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

6. The head of the Financial Services Committee and the Agriculture Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives announced the discussion draft of digital asset legislation, and the CFTC-SEC Digital Asset Joint Advisory Committee will be established.

7. Binance said the bank is cutting off its ties to the U.S. banking system.

8. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that commercial real estate may face difficulties ahead.

9. UBS successfully completed its takeover of Credit Suisse, but now needs to deliver on its promise that the government-led bailout will deliver gains for shareholders and Swiss taxpayers.

10. Many Wall Street banks expect the Fed to adopt a "hawkish pause" policy at its June meeting.

11. The report pointed out that China cannot rely on exports from Southeast Asia to offset the impact of the US economic slowdown.

12. China's big banks have begun to lower deposit rates, which indicates that there may be monetary policy relaxation in the future.

Encrypted ecological news

1. Bitcoin ordinal number launch

"Recursive Inscription"

To bypass Bitcoin's 4MB block size limit

2. The founder of Cruve deposits 33% of the $CRV circulating supply as collateral in Aave and borrows stablecoins

3. Tether minted 1 billion $USDT on Ethereum

4. The $200M $BNB is about to reach the liquidation price, and the BNBChain team will take over the $BNB position

5. 196 million $BLUR tokens, accounting for 6.5% of the total supply, will be unlocked on June 15

6. Gensyn, a blockchain-based AI computing protocol, received $43 million in Series A financing led by a16z

a16z launches international base in London

7. Bitcoin's market capitalization accounts for nearly half of the crypto market, the highest level since April 2021

8. Encryption startup Taiko Labs raised $22 million in two rounds of seed funding.

WOW EARN, an encryption mining company, completed a round A financing of US$30 million.

9. CFTC wins lawsuit against Ooki DAO

10. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its CEO Changpeng Zhao.

11. The SEC filed a lawsuit against the cryptocurrency platform Coinbase. This is the second lawsuit against a major encryption exchange in two days, marking a significant escalation of the crackdown on the encryption industry.

12. ARK Ark Fund has accumulatively increased its holdings of 67,100 shares of CB platform stocks in the past two weeks, worth about 4.33 million US dollars.

13. The SEC listed "BNB, BUSD, SOL, ADA, MATIC, FIL, ATOM, SAND, MANA, ALGO, AXS, COTI" as securities in the litigation documents.

**Long-term insight: **Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

**Mid-term exploration: **Used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

**Short-term observation: **Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long Term Insights

Long-term participant holding structure

Premium rate for on-chain network positivity

On-chain spot total selling pressure

Net position of large USD exchange

Long-term players are holding off on accumulating positions and instead shifting to slightly selling positions.

Of course, the overall degree of sell-off is not high, and long-term participants are stuck on the sidelines.

The enthusiasm on the chain is relatively declining, and the market sentiment and activity have reached a certain level of weakness.

The macro spot selling pressure is still at a historically low stage, and the current situation is not high.

More need to restore confidence and increase the purchasing power of funds.

In the current exchange situation, USD 10,000 to USD 10 million are probably outflowing, and these groups are more inclined to hoard goods for the current market.

However, the overall stockpiling status has been relatively reduced compared with one and a half quarters ago.

Moreover, the net position of the exchange above 10 million US dollars shows an inflow, which may be suppressed by a large amount of funds.

Mid-term probing

Short-Term Profit Percentage Composite Model

Short-term participants deposit analysis

Long-term participants deposit analysis

WTR Risk Index

Blue line: medium and long-term group accumulation coefficient

Orange line: supply of short-term players

Judging from the current situation, the medium and long-term group still maintains the pace of accumulation, and with the changes in the market, it shows a trend of increasing shocks;

However, the short-term participants are relatively sluggish, which may have reduced the confidence of the group due to the increase in holdings at the spot level and the sharp decrease in the profit-making effect, so they maintain a rational and wait-and-see attitude.

It also reflects the characteristics of the current deserted market and insufficient liquidity supply.

Blue area: the ratio of short-term participants’ deposits to deposits relative to their supply Red area: proportion > 1%

An early warning value of 1% is set in the supply of short-term participants. If it exceeds, it indicates the possibility that short-term participants are exerting potential selling pressure in the market;

It is currently in an upward trend of selling pressure imposed by short-term participants, and it may be safer to judge that it is better to wait for the cooling-off period when the selling pressure drops sharply and continue to observe;

At present, the limited short-term participants in the field will put the field into a certain state of pressure during the process of exerting pressure.

Blue area: the ratio of long-term participants' deposits to deposits relative to their supply Red area: proportion > 1% Medium and long-term participants are relatively cautious, wait and see, combined with the observation of the accumulation coefficient, it may be that they are currently inclined to increase their holdings;

In the current disk, these large-cycle participants have not exerted excessive potential selling pressure,

Perhaps the main problem in the current market is caused by short-term participants.

The WTR risk index is to observe the potential selling pressure from the spot point of view and set up a risk value. This model mainly judges whether BTC and ETH are currently in a risky state.

From the recent trajectory backtest:

1. The good risk index of BTC and ET shows oscillating changes. There may still be certain unstable factors in the spot market. Due to insufficient liquidity, the market is more sensitive to abnormal changes.

2. If it slides in this state, the pressure on the market may lead to market instability. The relatively safe state is still to wait for the risk to subside, and then there may be a stabilization in the mid-term range.

Short term observation

Derivatives Risk Factor

Option intention turnover ratio

Derivatives Volume

Options Implied Volatility

Profit and Loss Transfer Amount

New address and active address

Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange

Auntie exchange net position

High Weight Selling Pressure

The State of Global Purchasing Power

Stablecoin Exchange Net Position

Off-chain exchange data

** Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is at the lower edge of the neutral zone, and the bulls are under pressure. **

Last week's weekly report pointed out that the risk factor was in a dangerous area, and the bulls were still under pressure, and then the market experienced a relatively large correction. The current risk factor is still close to the edge of the danger zone, which means that the bulls are still under pressure.

Options trading volume has increased, and the current put protection ratio remains at a medium-to-high level. (Trading volume of derivatives in the figure below)

The volume of derivatives transactions is at a low level, reflecting the current low enthusiasm of derivatives traders to participate.

Options implied volatility is weak, indicating that current options traders are less active and less willing to bet.

Emotional State Rating: Depressed

In the course of the market correction last week, the amount of loss transfer has increased significantly. There are still signs of a breakout to the upside.

Last week, I mentioned the accumulation of chips at the price of 26K in combination with the chip chart. The current price has fallen below 26K, which may form a relatively large pressure level.

Newly added and active addresses are at a low-to-medium level. Overall, the current market activity and investor participation are still not high.

**Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall situation shows a large outflow, and the selling pressure has decreased. **

The net position of the pie exchange showed a large outflow. This indicates that the selling pressure in the current market has decreased.

The net position of Etai Exchange showed a state of substantial outflow and accumulation.

There is currently no high weight selling pressure.

**Purchasing power rating: global purchasing power loss, stablecoin purchasing power loss. **

Purchasing power in Asia and Europe remained negative, while purchasing power in the Americas picked up slightly.

The net position of the USDC exchange is showing an outflow.

The net position of the USDT exchange also showed an outflow.

** Off-chain transaction data rating: 24,500 with a willingness to buy; 29,000 with a willingness to sell. **

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 24000, 24500 and 25000;

There is a willingness to sell near the price of 30,000.

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 23,000, 24,000, and 25,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 27,000, 28,000, and 29,000.

There is a willingness to sell near the price of 27000.

Summary of this week:

Message summary:

U.S. Economic Overview:

The U.S. economy is still growing, although the pace may be slowing.

Core inflation fell slightly but remained above historical averages, which could draw further attention to inflationary pressures.

The drop in wholesale inventories suggests that while supply chain issues may be easing, business inventories may remain low, which could weigh on future production and sales.

Eurozone Economic Overview:

The GDP of the Eurozone has slightly declined in the first quarter of 2023, indicating that the European economy may be experiencing some challenges.

The annual rate of increase in the consumer price index fell, but remained above historical averages, which could raise concerns about inflation.

Asia Economic Overview:

Economic growth in developing Asia is expected to remain steady, mainly driven by a recovery in China and rising domestic demand in India.

finance:

The completion of UBS' acquisition of Credit Suisse is a major event that could change the Swiss and global financial landscape.

JPMorgan's settlement with Epstein's victims could draw further attention to the financial institution's internal controls and compliance issues.

Financial institutions cutting off access to Binance could affect the liquidity and stability of the cryptocurrency market.

Outlook:

In the future, investors may need to keep a close eye on inflation and supply chain issues, two issues that could have a significant impact on the global economy.

On the financial side, the integration of UBS and Credit Suisse, compliance issues for financial institutions, and the stability of the cryptocurrency market will be key issues to watch.

Long-term insights on the chain:

Long-term players held off on accumulating holdings and turned to a slightly selling state.

The enthusiasm on the chain is relatively declining, and the market sentiment and activity have reached a certain level of weakness.

The macro spot selling pressure on the chain is at a historically low level, and the restoration of confidence and the promotion of the purchasing power of funds are needed now.

The net position of the exchange above 10 million US dollars shows an inflow, and there may be a large amount of capital suppression.

Market setting tone:

weak.

It is recommended to extend long-term expectations to deal with weak conditions.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

The supply of short-term participants is small, and the medium and long-term groups are still slowly accumulating;

Short-term participants deposit more coins, reaching 0.89% of the supply, and the warning value is 1%;

Long-term participants deposit less money and are relatively inclined to hold money;

The WTR risk index is changing in a volatile manner, and the current market may not have reached a stable state.

Market setting tone:

Anxiety, fierce game

A relatively intense game has been launched on the market, and the change of hands is still continuing. The selling pressure is concentrated in the short-term chips. It may be that the recent state of pressure and the state of interaction between handicap emotions will make the market unstable.

On-chain short-term observation:

The risk factor is at the lower edge of the neutral area, and bulls are under pressure.

The new active addresses are relatively low, and the market activity is low.

Market Sentiment State Rating: Depressed.

The overall net position of the exchange showed a large outflow, and the selling pressure was reduced.

Global purchasing power loss, stable currency purchasing power loss.

The off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 24,500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 29,000.

The probability of not falling below 18000~22000 in the short term is 58%;

Among them, the probability of not breaking through 26500-29000 in the short term is 71%.

MARKET SETTING:

The current market sentiment is sluggish, the level of activity is low, and the bulls lack momentum.

STRATEGY SUGGESTIONS:

Trade within a narrow range or choose an opportunity to hedge risks.