Standard Chartered Bank analysts say BTC prices could reach $200,000 by 2025, and the market may be worth looking forward to next year.

Standard Chartered Bank analysts say BTC prices could reach $200,000 by 2025, and the market may be worth looking forward to next year.

Recently, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank predicted that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by 2025. This prediction has garnered widespread attention, especially as BTC's market performance has broken historical records for several months, approaching the six-figure mark. Does such a radical expectation have credibility? This question not only involves the fundamentals and market structure of BTC, but also the global macroeconomic environment, institutional investors' layouts, and market demand for BTC's future.

Standard Chartered Bank analyst's perspective

Standard Chartered Bank analysts pointed out that the core factors driving the further rise in BTC price mainly include the massive influx of institutional funds and the potential investment opportunities in digital assets for U.S. retirement investors. In particular, by 2024, ETF (exchange-traded funds) and institutions such as MicroStrategy have purchased large-scale BTC, and these buying behaviors are seen as key factors driving BTC prices to $60,000 or even close to $100,000.

Specifically, in 2024, BTCETF and large institutions such as MicroStrategy collectively purchased about 680,000 BTC, effectively driving market demand and price increases. It is expected that in 2025, the inflow of institutional funds will maintain the purchase amount of 2024, or even increase, thereby continuing to support the upward trend of BTC price.

In addition to the inflow of institutional funds, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank also mentioned that MicroStrategy has planned to spend $4.2 billion to buy BTC, a decision that will further increase the demand for BTC in the market. MicroStrategy's CEO, Michael Saylor, has always been a staunch supporter of BTC, and the company currently holds over 700,000 BTC. It is expected that by 2025, MicroStrategy will continue to expand its BTC position, which will have a positive impact on the market.

Standard Chartered Bank analysts' core view is that, with the continuous influx of institutional investors, the price of BTC is expected to break through the current historical high in 2025 and head towards the $200,000 mark.

The potential of American retirement investors

In addition to the purchasing power of institutions such as ETFs and MicroStrategy, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank also pointed out that the inflow of funds from US retirement investors will be an important factor driving the continued rise in BTC prices. Currently, the proportion of US retirement funds in the holdings of 9 Spot BTC ETFs in the US is only about 1%, which is obviously low (as shown in the figure below). However, as digital assets gradually gain prominence in the financial system, especially with the changing political environment in the US, the proportion of pension funds is expected to increase significantly by 2025.

Analysts believe that with the possibility of Trump returning to power in 2024, there may be changes in the policy environment for digital assets in the United States, which will drive more institutions, especially retirement funds, to include BTC in their investment portfolios. The influx of this capital is expected to form strong support for the price of BTC, and may become a catalyst for BTC to break through $200,000.

Due to the stability of its source of funds and the need for long-term investment, retirement funds usually have strong financial strength and flexible fund allocation. If the US retirement funds really start to invest in BTC on a large scale, the inflow of funds will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the BTC market. Considering the increasingly established "digital gold" status of BTC in the global financial system, the investment expectation of retirement funds in BTC is not only reasonable, but even inevitable.

BTC short-term price pressure and future trend

Although BTC is bullish in the long term and has almost become the Consensus of the market, the price Fluctuation in the short term is still an undeniable factor. Currently, the price of BTC is at a key price range, around $100,000. This level has formed a strong psychological and technical resistance level, which may lead to a period of oscillation and consolidation in the short term.

Recently, the price of BTC has approached the $100,000 mark. However, as the market gradually digests this price range, there may be a certain pullback or fluctuation. In the short term, the fluctuation range of BTC's price may oscillate between $93,000 and $100,000. Such a fluctuating market is often referred to as 'Whipsaw,' with the aim of clearing the floating chips in the market, allowing the price to break through the current resistance range after consolidation.

However, although BTC may face some short-term adjustment pressure, in the long run, BTC still has strong upward momentum. Investors can pay attention to market dynamics, especially the buying behavior of major institutions and the changes in technical patterns, to judge when BTC can break through the current price bottleneck.

The impact of market funds and market sentiment

The price of BTC is not only influenced by technical factors, but also closely related to the global economic environment, market sentiment, and the performance of other encryption assets. Against the backdrop of uncertainty in the global financial market and loose monetary policy, BTC, as a decentralized digital asset, is increasingly seen as a tool to combat inflation and hedge against currency depreciation risks. With the maturity of the BTC market, its correlation with traditional financial markets is gradually increasing, and the speed and scale of capital flows also exhibit more diversified characteristics.

Institutional investors' continued involvement, especially the layout of large technology companies and Financial Institutions, is bringing greater Liquidity to the BTC market. Compared to BTC, traditional market investment tools such as stocks and bonds are facing more severe Interest Rate rise and market contraction pressure, which further promotes capital inflows into the digital asset market, especially the leading asset BTC.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered Bank analysts' optimism about the future of BTC is not unfounded. Institutional funds, especially the continuous purchases of ETFs, MicroStrategy, and other large funds, as well as potential investments from US pensions, may provide strong support for BTC prices in 2025. However, despite the broad long-term prospects for BTC, investors still need to remain cautious about short-term price fluctuations. In the short term, BTC may oscillate and consolidate between $93,000 and $100,000 until the market absorbs these fluctuations before the price can potentially break through the current resistance and begin a new upward cycle.

This article Standard Chartered Bank analyst claims that the price of BTC will reach $200,000 by 2025, and the market may be worth looking forward to next year, first appeared on ChainNews ABMedia.