In the AI era, please embrace real information and users, and be vigilant against conspiracy groups

Real influence and real feedback can allow us to enter a positive cycle. Looking back on 2024, I hope that what we will touch and create in 2025 is real and has positive value for the industry. (Synopsis: BTC is expected to break $200,000!) Financial Times 2025 comprehensive forecast: Trump launched a tariff war, Russia-Ukraine truce, the growth of the seven US stocks slowed down.. (Background added: Galaxy 2025 Cryptocurrency Big Prediction: BTC rushes to $185,000 at the end of the year, ETH breaks through 5,500, DeFi explodes... It seems that everyone is looking forward to 2025, market reasons, hot reasons. Project parties, suckers, KOLs, VCs... Everyone is ready to go big. I'm one of them. But I'm starting to be wary of how I can keep myself from being "" when everyone wants to do it. Looking back on 2024, I hope that what I am exposed to and what I create in 2025 is real and has positive value for the industry. True information: Information cocoons are everywhere, and what we are pursuing is not more information, but real information Don't be superstitious about a single channel The first time this year made me deeply aware of this incident was the US election. If you only look at Polymarket, you will always feel that Trump has won steadily, and the Fluctuation in the middle will surprise you. If you only watch "some American party media", you will think that Harris still has a chance of winning; And change the information channel to Twitter, and you will find that Twitter is full of messages that Trump wants to win. There is no right or wrong message, but it is narrow. Therefore, when we only use Twitter to evaluate the popularity and reputation of a project, we should also look at on-chain information, community discussions, communication with people, and so on. Enrich your own channels and make the signals you receive more diverse. Escaping KOL bias What impressed me the most this year was the discussion about ai16z, which I followed by chance from the beginning to the present. There are good ones, there are bad ones. For example, at the beginning, the founder's mouth was unobstructed, so that many people began to worry about their Holdings, and KOLs of the level of Ansem and Him were also publicly fearing, uncertainty and doubt ai16z. In the eliza/Eliza capitalization debate, different KOLs hold very different opinions. It's normal to have different opinions, and it's normal to criticize a project, but if all points of view deviate from logic and become emotional and solidified, it is biased. During this period, if you just look at those who have been bullish AI16z, you will feel that the problems of the project are not worth mentioning, and of course you need to withstand the pressure of that time. Also during this period, if you only follow those KOLs who are still fearing, uncertainty and doubt no matter how good ai16z is, the information you receive will always be negative, which will also make you miss out on 10x or even 100x earnings. There is no right or wrong KOL, but every KOL is just an information cocoon. Their qualities are good and bad, but because they are individuals, they must have their own solidified cognition and even some kind of prejudice. When you're researching a project, don't overlook the frens around you who have really studied the project. Be wary of the cabal, your gossip is a "loss message" Many frens have shared on Twitter, and more than 80% of the "gossip" they get is a loss. I, too, am not malicious in sharing "gossip" with you, but because everyone is part of Play. You don't know the authenticity of the message (whether it will pull or not); do not know the validity of the message (where to pull); not knowing that they are the first people to also know this message (buy enough low enough); …… The probability of these messages being "distorted" is so high that these "gossip" messages become "money-losing messages" to you. Real users: Reject fake data prosperity, traffic is important, but don't get addicted to traffic Traffic in the industry has become more fake, and we need real influence Whether it's Twitter fans, website traffic, or the number of AMAs, fake traffic is increasing, and it also feeds a lot of Merch's "sales traffic" services. For my own work, the experience is deeper. The influence of the media, traffic is a very important judgment factor, many people who do not know the industry, generally through some third-party tools, from the perspective of traffic to judge whether the media is worth cooperating. This also directly leads to "buying traffic", attracting "business", which has become a common phenomenon, and this is true of any line. But "bought traffic" doesn't bring "real impact"; The "business" attracted does not bring them "good results". In this cycle: the platform has to buy traffic and make itself look very influential; The project party needs good-looking traffic to prove that what is done is effective; Different platforms compete with each other, and the cost of buying traffic gradually increases; The traffic becomes larger, the surface effect becomes better, the industry enters a false prosperity, and only the wealth is truly transferred to the "traffic service provider". I would like to call this phenomenon "TrafficSick". Once contaminated, it will sink deeper and deeper. How to judge the real impact? Try to communicate with real people, communicate with different characters in the industry, ask them how they think about a certain issue, have they seen a certain content, what they have to say, etc. This is also the reason why I went to a lot of activities last year, only by really contacting and communicating with different FREN offline, I know what everyone thinks of us, what everyone is discussing now, what kind of atmosphere the community is now, what kind of content is really interesting to users, and so on. Real influence and real feedback can allow us to enter a positive cycle. Don't be afraid of low traffic, you may wish to create an emotional niche community first When I used to advertise, I have been deeply influenced by a point of view: There must be some commonality at the bottom of everyone, so that no matter what you do, as long as this thing is "you are really moved" and "you yourself deeply recognize", somewhere in the world, there will be someone who will have the same resonance with you. Just like listening to music, "niche music" is always a relative concept, and there will always be a market. So from the perspective of the market, the problem solved is actually very clear: 1- Are you doing what you really move and recognize? 2- Have you spread the word wide enough? For Web3, although our market is getting bigger, the good thing is that our traffic is not very fragmented. You can count where users are, what social apps they use, and what your competitors are. Loyal Member must be attracted to one of your "extreme concepts, ideas, attitudes", etc. As soon as you find them, they will come because of you and start to gather and form a community. There is no need for many people, because these dozens of people may be much better than tens of thousands of people. So, let's not worry about the traffic not working, but worry about whether what we do can really attract people. Authentic creation: When AI becomes a universal creative tool for everyone, what kind of content will be engaging? In addition to the hype this year about concepts such as AI Agent, AI as a tool is also greatly improving our productivity. But now everyone will generally comment on a point: this thing AI is so heavy. Whether you notice it or not, what you will gradually discover is: you see...