【Trend Talk】It's hard to hit new highs without a pullback of more than 30%.

The madman said...

Three days before Trump's inauguration, the market has already given the answer in advance. According to Polymarket, the probability of Trump's cryptocurrency policy on the first day of his inauguration has risen from 28% to 51%, indicating a decreasing probability of verbal confrontation and an increasing probability of actual policy implementation.

This is undoubtedly good for Bitcoin to maintain the inflow of funds. The big challenge now is the continuity of policies after taking office. I don't have much confidence in this old man, mainly because of the excessive verbal battles in the previous term. I don't know if he will be more mature and stable in this term.

He doesn't have many handles to grab this time he comes to power. The cryptocurrency market could be an honor for future family inheritance, so let's see the continuity of the policies behind. Previously, after the successful election, he made outrageous remarks about buying Greenland, annexing Canada, and controlling the Panama Canal. Although the trend of global dominance has always existed, shooting off the mouth has always been the characteristic of the old man. If the mouth shoots off and the market rises, then it's us who will be unlucky if it's not realized.

To get to the point, after the old man took office, the assets with advantages were still the pile of things held by Trump Fund, such as ETH, AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, etc. This can be seen from the recent obvious inflow of Ethereum ETF. Wall Street veterans are probably the most knowledgeable about US financial rules, so if they lay out these things, they are probably not likely to suffer heavy losses.

In addition, the most powerful old coin Litecoin (LTC) in the recent period, the spot ETF application has made positive progress, so it is hotly speculated by the market, which also shows the high market sentiment. Such sentiment is not conducive to continued upward trend in the future market. The sentiment may be anticipating that in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin may also become a strategic reserve in the future. However, just look at the appearance of Ethereum, you can see that Litecoin has already risen quite outrageously in this round. The driving force is mainly sentiment. Although the overall price of Litecoin is not expensive, it is relatively expensive when there is no sign of the ETF being approved. Those who buy in are ultimately gambling on whether it will be approved. If it is approved, the current price is still acceptable, but the short-term risks are already high.

Overall, I am not so optimistic about the future market. I maintain my previous judgment that 100,000 to 120,000 is the peak of this trend. Without a correction of more than 30%, it is difficult to continue to push to new heights (such as 180,000 to 200,000?).

Statement: The article represents only the author's personal opinions, not the perspective and position of the blockchain, and all content and views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain will not bear any responsibility for the direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' transactions.

<【Mad Man Says Trend】It is difficult to achieve new highs without a correction of more than 30%> This article was first published in Blockcast.