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JPMorgan Analysts said, "Corporate Demand Low," Listed What They Expect for Bitcoin and Ethereum!
JPMorgan analysts warned of potential downside risks in the cryptocurrency market due to continued weakening institutional demand for CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.
According to a report published by JPMorgan analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou on Wednesday, the total cryptocurrency market value, which hit an all-time high of $3.72 trillion on December 17, fell by about 15% to approximately $3.17 trillion. This significant correction resulted in a 'drawdown' situation, where CME Bitcoin and ETH futures prices approached below spot prices, similar to the trends observed in June and July.
Analysts said, "This is a negative development and an indicator of weakening demand from institutional investors using CME futures contracts to expose themselves to these two cryptocurrencies."
Typically, when there is a strong demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, these contracts trade at a premium to spot prices, a situation known as 'contango.' JPMorgan analysts explained that this premium, often exceeding 10% annually, reflects the high 'risk-free' rate in the crypto markets where lending in dollars can yield between 5% and 10% annually. However, when demand and price expectations weaken, futures prices can fall below spot prices as seen in mid-2023.
JPMorgan attributes the declining demand for CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures to two main factors. Firstly, some institutional investors are selling off due to the lack of immediate positive catalysts. Analysts noted that significant regulatory initiatives related to crypto by the new US administration are unlikely before the second half of the year, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Secondly, momentum-focused funds such as commodity trading advisors are further reducing demand by reducing their exposures. The report stated, 'Both Bitcoin and Ethereum momentum signals have been slowing down for the past few months, and the Ethereum momentum signal has already entered the negative zone.'