Keeping Faith in Bitcoin: Decoding the 2017 Cycle and the Power of the HODLing Strategy

Bitcoin's current price movement is reminiscent of its March 2017 cycle. At the time, BTC was still nine months away from peaking. If the past is any indication, BTC could enter its next phase of "extreme greed" in Q4 2025. This signals the final phase of the bull run. Bitcoin RSI and 2017 Cycle A recent post from X (trước this is Twitter) indicating that Bitcoin's RSI Bollinger Band % has returned to ultra-low levels. This indicates that the asset is oversold deep in its volatility range, which often indicates resilience. This pattern is similar to those that occurred in 2013, 2016, and 2020, all of which preceded Bitcoin's new record highs. However, with a BTC price of $83,078, the future remains uncertain. Analysts have warned that a local bottom has yet to form. Institutional outflows are accelerating and the supply of long-term holdings is falling to pre-election lows. These are signs of short-term weakness. Determine the next market peak While a solid bottom has yet to be established, there are no strong indicators of market tops either. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is steadily rising, with foreign exchange reserves falling to one-year lows. This indicates long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking. Although Bitcoin is down 22 percent from its peak of $109,000, the supply of BTC on exchanges continues to decline. This shows that investors are holding, not selling. For Bitcoin to repeat the 2017 bull cycle, this accumulation trend must continue. If so, historical data suggests that the true cyclical peak of the market could still be nine months away. Even amid macro instability and stock market liquidations, BTC maintained the $77,000–80,000 range. This shows the unwavering confidence of investors. In the short term, breaking above $90,000 is the main challenge. However, in the long run, sustained accumulation and growing confidence could push Bitcoin into the six-digit levels.