Chainsmoker

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Chainsmoker
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Investment in the cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline over the past few years and is now seeing a significant return of money, especially in venture capital. Bloomberg reported that venture capital firm Paradigm plans to raise up to $850 million in new funds, which would be the biggest deal since the bear market if it does succeed. Paradigm, which raised nearly $2.5 billion in funding in November 2021, is now mostly investing in early-stage projects, and the overall venture capital community is also picking up, with a nearly 50% increase in March compared to the previous month
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Chainsmoker
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In terms of spot ETFs, Fidelity once again surpassed Blackrock, with a total of more than 1,700 bitcoins on the working day on April 3, which is a net inflow of ETFs for two consecutive days, and it is also necessary for bitcoin to resume its rise.
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Chainsmoker
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In the first cycle (from the second half of 2012 to 2016), the price of bitcoin rose sharply within 132 days after the halving, the landmark event was April 9, 2013, when the price increase behavior was interpreted as a reaction to scarcity and speculation, and then it entered the disillusionment phase, which is the second phase of the cycle, when the price volatility becomes violent, usually a peak is followed by a significant decline, the market may overheat at this stage, and then the price falls sharply for various reasons. Finally, there is the accumulation stage, which will be out of thi
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Chainsmoker
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The CEO of CryptoQuant released the Bitcoin halving chart, on which the relationship between the Bitcoin halving cycle and the price can be seen very clearly, the three stages are: speculation, disillusionment (down), The accumulation period (recovery period), we are still in the accumulation period, but it will be over in just over two weeks, when the Bitcoin halving will take place (expected on April 20), that is, we will go through the initial hype period from the point of origin, during which the price of Bitcoin tends to rise sharply, and the price performance after each halving in histor
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Chainsmoker
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In a recent interview, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made his position clear, making it clear that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which means providing low-cost funding and is a key factor for risk markets. The current economic performance is strong, the job market is stable, and the inflation rate is steadily declining, although inflation has not yet reached the expected target, but the Fed is satisfied with the current state of the economy. The U.S. government has already paid $1 trillion in interest on its national debt over the past year, and its cash flow is not abundant, and
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Chainsmoker
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In terms of the 4-hour trend of Bitcoin, we are located below the MA200 moving average, which is somewhat similar to late January, when after the approval of the spot ETF, there was a typical sell news sell-off, and the price of Bitcoin has been below the MA200 moving average, which is the performance of the price relative to the bear market in the short term, and this wave of Bitcoin is also oversold, and there is some demand for a price rebound from the technical indicators, but the MA200 on the daily line is still at $44,000, which is very far away. The cost for short-term holders is around
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Chainsmoker
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Bitcoin seems to have stabilized temporarily after yesterday's decline, falling as low as $64,500 yesterday, due to a number of reasons, including a sell-off by short-term holders, the release of manufacturing data in March that hit expectations of a rate cut in June, a strengthening of the US 10-year Treasury and a strengthening of the US dollar index, which will all have an impact on Bitcoin. There was also an outflow of funds from the spot ETF market, with large outflows from Ark and Grayscale, and news of a sell-off of bitcoin by the U.S. government, which sold about 30,000 bitcoins worth
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Chainsmoker
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Stablecoin giant Tether reported that in the first quarter of 2024, it further increased its investment in Bitcoin, buying more than $600 million worth of Bitcoin, bringing their total holdings to about 75,354 coins worth more than $5.2 billion, and in May last year, Tether announced that it would invest up to 15% of its profits in Bitcoin. Although they did not disclose the Bitcoin wallet address, one of the Bitcoin addresses was confirmed by the media last year and it was observed that TEDA has been steadily increasing its Bitcoin holdings every quarter since September 2022.
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Chainsmoker
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For this wave of bitcoin decline, it is normal for the price to fluctuate between $3,000 and $5,000 in a bull market, and even if the price crashes, the short-term theoretical lowest point will only fall around $58,000, and every large price drop is still an opportunity. Judging from the MVRV, there is still the possibility of bitcoin doubling, and it is still far from the top. There is also the Bitcoin price and its realized market capitalization, the ratio chart of the four different age groups, especially the orange block (which represents the 2-3 year group), which now seems to be halfway
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Chainsmoker
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The US 10-year Treasury yield rose, and the dollar index was also pulled higher, both of which are negatively correlated with Bitcoin, and if the dollar strengthens, this may be negative for Bitcoin, and in this expectation, the expectation of a rate cut in June has been lowered again. South Korean exchange trading volume fell by 75%, and the market's frenzied trading sentiment for altcoins has largely cooled significantly in the short term.
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When does it pack up again?
Chainsmoker
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Yesterday Bitcoin experienced two waves of declines, from a maximum of about $71,500 to a minimum of $66,000, since March 20, the two moving averages of MA50 and MA200 have become very close, and yesterday did not touch the MA200 moving average, which is at $67,400. The short-term speculative leverage in the Bitcoin futures market has basically been cleaned up, especially in response to the two short-term declines of Bitcoin bulls, which have suffered large losses and made those who were previously actively building long positions cautious.
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Chainsmoker
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Mark, a well-known hedge fund manager Yusko believes that Bitcoin is still in the price discovery stage, especially the huge impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on market investors, the increased interest after the halving may lead to a new wave of FOMO, the performance of Bitcoin in the history of the halving cycle is often a doubling of the market value, he expects the market price of this cycle to be around $75,000, although affected by Ordinals and inscription transaction fees, Bitcoin's growth in this cycle has not yet reached the initial expectation of $100,000, but he still bel
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Chainsmoker
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The spot ETF market resumed 4 consecutive days of positive inflows last week, pushing the price of Bitcoin to more than $70,000, while the average price of short-term holders has risen to $57,650, and this average price line may reach $60,000 in the coming period, which means that even if there is a deep short-term price decline, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to get close to or fall below this average price line. The last time the ETF was approved there was a 10-day decline, and on January 23, it was close to this line, when the price was around $38,500, and we can always find strong suppor
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Chainsmoker
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Bitcoin futures market liquidation heat map, the recent rise has wiped out some of the shorts above, and now the most eye-catching should be the $72,000 above, the liquidation scale involved here is relatively large, and there are also a large number of short-term leveraged longs below, as long as Bitcoin quickly falls back to $69,500, these long positions will be wiped out instantly. The current price focus for Bitcoin is with plenty of active buying around 70,670, but the price is currently falling and turning into a major resistance level here, while support below is around $66,200.
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Chainsmoker
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March ended perfectly, Bitcoin achieved a monthly increase of 16%, the price has risen for 7 consecutive months, will April set a record of 8 consecutive rises? April will usher in the Bitcoin halving, probably on April 20, although the price of Bitcoin has risen slightly, but the overall is in a sideways state, the 4-hour RSI has pulled from 50 to 60, the price has not risen significantly, and the recent upward momentum is somewhat weak. However, the funding rate has rebounded to the level of March 11, and since the funding rate hit the bottom on March 20, it has also risen along with the pri
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Chainsmoker
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Bitcoin saw a surge in supply and demand indicators between old and new investors in 2023, suggesting that new investors' purchasing power had reached new peaks during this period, a pattern that is often accompanied by price increases, as we saw in late 2023. The bull market of 2021 was a bit of an exception, in April 2021 Bitcoin was already at the peak of the cycle according to the indicators, but at the end of 2021 we saw a higher price of Bitcoin, and long-term holders have ended the distribution process since April 2021 and started to increase their holdings of Bitcoin, so sometimes the
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Chainsmoker
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Many of the major events that are expected to happen will shape the price of the market in the short term, including the Bitcoin halving, some countries are preparing to approve spot bitcoin ETFs, etc., Bitwise believes that the adoption of cryptocurrencies is now only about 1% complete, and there are still 99% to be developed, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market has huge room for growth. Even if the average allocation of global wealth managers is only 1%, this could lead to an inflow of about $1 trillion into Bitcoin. Common on-chain indicators suggest that we are still in the early sta
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