XLM price big pump 40% breaks downtrend channel, SEC withdrawal ignites cross-border payment track, technical target 0.51 USD | 2025 payment coin recovery

The cross-border payment leader Stellar (XLM) has officially broken through the long-term downtrend channel. With the SEC and Ripple jointly applying to withdraw years of legal lawsuits, XLM recorded a double-digit pump within 24 hours, continuing a 5% upward momentum on Friday. The technical indicators show that the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level of $0.4834 has become a breakout target. If a confirmed close occurs, it will drive the price to challenge the previous high of $0.5166, an 11% increase from the current level. The derivatives market has seen an increase in open contracts by 40% to $434 million, with short positions liquidated reaching $1.17 million. The Long-Short Ratio has risen to 1.0173, reflecting a recovery in risk appetite among institutions and retail investors, providing capital support for the subsequent upward trend.

Regulatory Breakthrough: SEC Dismissal Ignites the Revitalization Engine of the Cross-Border Payment Track

Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted a joint motion to dismiss the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit on Thursday, marking the end of a years-long regulatory cloud. This legal development directly reignites investor risk appetite for cross-border payment tokens, with XRP and XLM as the dual oligarchs in this track both recording double-digit gains within 24 hours.

The effects of regulatory clarity continue to ferment, significantly increasing the willingness of traditional financial institutions to adopt blockchain payment infrastructure. XLM, as the native token of the Stellar network, with its low transaction fee (0.00001 XLM) and second-level confirmation speed advantages, becomes even more competitive in a transparent regulatory environment, making it an ideal choice for interbank clearing and bridging central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Derivation Frenzy: Unsettled Contracts Surge 40%, Short Positions Suffer Heavy Losses

The explosion of traders' confidence is directly reflected in the drastic changes in the derivatives market. According to CoinGlass data, XLM's open contracts surged nearly 40% in the past 24 hours, skyrocketing from about 310 million dollars to 434.04 million dollars, setting a new high in nearly three months.

More critically, the liquidation data presents an extreme imbalance: long liquidations amounted to only $351,490, while short liquidations reached $1,170,000, with short losses exceeding long losses by 3.3 times. This liquidation asymmetry drove the Long-Short Ratio up to 1.0173, indicating a surge in active bullish positions, as institutions and whale funds are heavily betting on the future performance of XLM.

The synchronized amplification of capital inflows and position establishment provides solid liquidity support for the price pump of XLM, indicating that this wave of increase is not a short-term speculation, but a trend-based market driven by fundamental improvements.

Technical Breakthrough: Downward Channel Breakout, Fibonacci Target $0.51

From a technical analysis perspective, XLM's breakout has a solid chart foundation. The 4-hour timeframe chart shows that Stellar has successfully broken through the upper boundary of the descending channel that has constrained the price since mid-July, which is a key technical reversal signal.

Currently, XLM has broken through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.4389 USD (calculated from the high of 0.5166 USD on July 14 to the low of 0.3613 USD on Sunday), with the next technical resistance level locked at the 78.6% retracement level of 0.4834 USD. If the price can decisively break through this level, the breakout rally is expected to extend to the previous high of 0.5166 USD, corresponding to an 11% upside potential.

The moving average system is synchronously aligning: the 50-day EMA is accelerating towards the 100-day EMA, with a golden cross formation imminent. Both the MACD indicator and the signal line are moving upwards, the RSI has reached 76 and has broken through the overbought zone, and multiple technical indicators are resonating to confirm that bullish momentum is accelerating accumulation.

Ecological Empowerment: Central Bank Digital Currency Bridging and Institutional Adoption Acceleration

In addition to the technical breakthrough, the fundamentals of XLM are also undergoing a qualitative change. The Stellar Development Foundation is engaging in deep cooperation with multiple central banks on the issuance of CBDCs and cross-border settlements. Pilot projects for digital currencies in countries such as Ukraine and Mongolia have all chosen Stellar as the underlying technological framework.

On the institutional adoption front, IBM has provided real payment scenario demands for XLM through the World Wire network, Moneygram's remittance services, and a strategic partnership with USDC issuer Circle. With the improvement of the regulatory environment, the integration speed of traditional financial giants into the Stellar ecosystem will significantly accelerate.

Conclusion

XLM is currently in a golden window period characterized by favorable regulations, technical breakthroughs, and an influx of funds. The policy dividends brought about by the SEC's withdrawal of the lawsuit have injected a strong boost into the entire cross-border payment track, while Stellar, with its technical advantages and institutional collaboration foundation, is expected to outperform the market in this wave of trends. The technical target of $0.51 is not out of reach, but investors should still pay attention to the effectiveness of the support level at $0.4389. Driven by the dual waves of RWA tokenization and central bank digital currencies, XLM may become one of the biggest beneficiaries in the payment infrastructure track by 2025. Risk reminder: Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile, please carefully assess your risk tolerance.