Bitcoin is the benchmark: Why the biggest opportunity in the next decade is not DeFi, but the integration of BTC + TradFi?

In the rapidly changing world of crypto assets, DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is undoubtedly one of the most notable innovations of the past few years. However, veteran analyst Mark Jeftovic cites Willy Woo's perspective and presents a disruptive argument: "The biggest fintech opportunity in the next decade is not DeFi, but the merger of BTC + TradFi." This sums up everything we have seen in this past cycle—Bitcoin becoming the foundational layer for the next generation of financial tools, and stablecoins acting as a bridge between the traditional dollar system and the new fintech ecosystem. This is not just an evolution of technology, but a transformation of the financial paradigm.

1. The Dominance of Bitcoin and Its Innovative Pull

Billionaire investor and venture capitalist Tim Draper commented on Bitcoin's continued dominance, stating that what we are seeing is an example of the "winner takes all" phenomenon:

The market share of Bitcoin has recently reached 61%, higher than the 40% after the first boom-bust cycle and the 50% after the last boom-bust cycle. This shows that Bitcoin's market dominance is steadily increasing.

Draper compares this phenomenon to the era of Microsoft operating systems. When Lotus 1-2-3 was all the rage, Microsoft created Excel and incorporated it into the operating system. The success of WordPerfect prompted Microsoft to establish Word. Subsequently, Microsoft acquired PowerPoint ahead of time. All of these applications became standard configurations for Microsoft, while early startups were marginalized.

He pointed out that all innovations starting from altcoins (smart contracts, blockchain applications, ordinals) are shifting towards Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.8 trillion, while the second-ranked Ethereum has a market capitalization of only $250 billion. Bitcoin is now attracting most developers, who are drawn to Bitcoin. There are five truly important applications being built on Bitcoin—DeFi (peer-to-peer payments, trading, exchanges, financial inclusion, etc.), smart contracts (supply chain transparency and traceability, asset trading and resource tracking), ordinals, runes, and Layer 2 solutions such as low-cost micropayments. This gravitational pull is accelerating. Behind every entrepreneur starting a business on Bitcoin is the driving force of a whole ecosystem. Smart entrepreneurs always build on the most attractive platform, and that platform is Bitcoin.

II. The Rise of Enterprise-Level Bitcoin Vaults and Challenges from Other Crypto Assets

When people ask how much Bitcoin will be worth in five years, Draper says it will be worth one Bitcoin. As the dollar continues to inflate until it disappears, its exchange rate against the dollar could be infinite. Less than a week ago, when Draper made the above statement, Bitcoin's dominance was 61%, and now it is 64%. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to languish, although some say it is undervalued and ready for a strong rebound—but Mark Jeftovic doesn't see it.

As described in the Treasuries Playbook, we are now starting to see companies that reserve ETH assets emerging like mushrooms after rain. For example, as a Bitcoin miner, BitMine Immersion Tech (NYSE: BMNR) has appointed Tom Lee as chairman and completed $250 million in financing to establish an ETH treasury. BitMine has a corporate treasury of 161 BTC, ranking 62nd - it is currently unclear whether they plan to liquidate it to buy more ETH. Jeftovic suggests not to do so.

Bit Digital (BTBT) also rejected Jeftovic's proposal to completely withdraw from Bitcoin mining and instead "become a company focused on Ethereum": they will sell their Bitcoin (according to their March investor report, they hold 742 BTC) in exchange for Ethereum (ETH) and will sell or gradually shut down their entire Bitcoin mining operation.

Jeftovic indeed holds shares in Sol Strategies, which started to establish a Solana Treasury company about a year ago and almost perfectly seized this opportunity—when he speculated that the memecoin trading had ended, they exited their positions (realizing an outstanding return of 2043%) and there would be no alt-season as we had seen in previous cycles. Sol Strategies also holds a BTC treasury—Jeftovic had hoped they could use it as a anchor—but they sold it off to buy more SOL, close to the peak—meanwhile, Bitcoin had reached new highs.

Future MBA and finance students may one day look back on this era and speculate that crypto financial strategies can only succeed when the stored assets are dominant assets, and may need to overcome some magical barriers, such as a 50% market dominance. It will also require a rolling four-year and ten-year compound annual growth rate higher than anything else; otherwise, storing it makes no sense compared to things with higher RoR. In other words, it must be Bitcoin, and all other financial investments will stagnate.

3. Bitcoin Price Volatility and Changes in Market Structure

Therefore, if Bitcoin is the only choice for the foundation layer of corporate finance and the next generation financial system, "why hasn't BTC risen?" This is a question we often see on social media. Especially after that terrible crash on June 22, which fell all the way to $98,000 - losing the psychologically significant $100,000 level in nearly eight hours.

Throughout the entire cycle, one mistake acknowledged by Jeftovic is that we should have expected at least a few declines of 30% to 40%. However, since the end of the cryptocurrency winter in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed out at $16,000, the increase has not exceeded 30%.

In discussing the question of "why the quantity is not increasing", Bitcoin Magazine analyzed the accumulation trend and concluded that many whales hold BTC at ultra-low prices and are pulling their lifestyle chips off the table. In recent months, over 240,000 BTC have been sold from wallets held for 1 to 5 years. This sell-off has largely offset the increases from institutional investors. Considering that miners are still increasing the market by about 450 BTC daily, we can understand why the price is struggling to break upwards: the market is in a state of supply and demand balance.

(Source: Bitcoin Magazine, ZeroHedge)

Given that systemic shocks and seemingly existential crises have been steadily approaching (Japan's implosion, bond yields, Middle East wars, the Ukraine war, etc.), "Why hasn't Bitcoin risen?" is not the most important question for Jeftovic. "Why hasn't it further declined during these times?" is what he has been wanting to know.

The market structure may undergo fundamental changes, and it seems very likely, even to the extent of reaching past four-year cycles. Or it could be extended; another article from Bitcoin Magazine compared the 200-week moving average with previous cycles and pointed out: "When the 200-week moving average breaks through previous historical highs, a very consistent pattern emerges. In multiple cycles, when this crossover occurs, Bitcoin's price has either already peaked or is very close to peaking." If this pattern continues, we seem to anticipate that this cycle will peak around May or June 2026.

Conclusion:

Bitcoin's status as a financial benchmark is increasingly solidified, and its integration with traditional finance will be the biggest opportunity in the next decade. Despite ongoing market volatility and macroeconomic challenges, the resilience shown by Bitcoin makes it a key asset for hedging risks. As more and more companies incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets and innovations continue to emerge within the Bitcoin ecosystem, its potential as "digital gold" and financial infrastructure will be continuously unleashed.