Uniswap (UNI) Price Prediction: Futures and Spot Activity Signals Conflict, Trading Should Not Be Overly Bullish

Today (7) during the Asian afternoon session, Uniswap (UNI) continued its weekend pump, currently quoted at 7.41 USD. Indicators and metrics provide market participants with cautious bullish space, as conflicting signals between futures and Spot activities suggest that trading should not be overly bullish.

UNI has struggled for most of this year, with the decentralized exchange (DEX) token falling from a high of $19.47 in December last year to a low of $4.55 in April this year, a drop of 74%. However, since mid-May, the price has been slowly rising, with the 50-day moving average serving as a strong support level. On-chain activities suggest that the traffic for this DEX may be increasing.

The 7-day moving average of trading volume shows that Uniswap token trading volume has been continuously increasing since mid-April. Since then, trading volume has continued to rise, highlighting the growing demand for UNI and its high usage.

Compared to April, the trading volume of DEX itself increased in May and June. However, the trading volume began to decline at the end of June and the beginning of July. Is this an early sign of problems with the price of Uniswap?

Uniswap Futures and Spot Activity Signal Conflict

CryptoQuant indicators use trading frequency and position size to measure the level of UNI retail activity. Active retail activity usually signifies market overextension and may help identify local tops. In December 2024 and January 2025, futures retail activity was active. Similarly, the activity level has also been high in recent weeks.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

On the other hand, the Spot CVD has been bullish since mid-May over the past three months. As of the time of writing, the 90-day Spot CVD is positive and continuously rising, indicating that the market is in a stage dominated by buy orders. This finding seems inconsistent with the retail futures trading activity. Active buy orders (or market orders) may be more indicative than the activity in futures trading.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Finally, the 1-day price chart highlights the bullish momentum. The RSI is above the neutral 50, and the price is above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, the CMF is -0.1, indicating a significant outflow of funds.

The next trend for Uniswap seems to show conflicting signals once again. Considering all the evidence, the 8 dollar resistance level may experience greater volatility.

Especially considering that it seems to be an important resistance level in the short term.

Once the price drops to the support level of 8 USD, swing traders looking to go long can enter the market. At the same time, although the 90-day Spot CVD shows that buyers are dominant, market participants should still be cautious of a bearish reversal.

(Source: Trading View)