The global market is entering a critical 72 hours, with Ethereum breaking through the $4000 mark as the focus.

Recently, trade representatives from China and the United States held constructive talks in Stockholm, Sweden, agreeing to extend certain tariff measures for 90 days, bringing some relief to the market. However, the global market still faces significant challenges, especially with the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. While it is generally expected that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain interest rates this week, the market is more focused on the timing of the first rate cut. Wall Street has formed two viewpoints on this: one side predicts that the rate cut cycle will begin in September, while the other believes it may be postponed until December or later.

In this context, some strategists warn that the global central bank easing policies, the relaxation of financial regulations, and a shift in government policies may jointly give rise to a "larger bubble" driven by "greater retail participation, more abundant liquidity, and more intense volatility." As important events such as the U.S. second-quarter GDP data, the Federal Reserve's decision, the earnings reports from tech giants, and the July non-farm payroll report are coming up in succession, the global market is ushering in a crucial "super 72 hours," the outcome of which will lay the foundation for market trends for the remainder of this year.

The Ethereum market is undergoing structural changes driven by institutional capital. Analysts indicate that since July, Ethereum has risen by over 50%, mainly propelled by favorable macro policies, micro fund inflows, and shifts in investor sentiment. The active promotion of cryptocurrency legislation by the U.S. Congress has injected confidence into the market, while the significant inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs acts as a direct catalyst. This indicates that Ethereum is transitioning from "the fuel of the world computer" to "a yield-bearing reserve asset." After Ethereum's shift to PoS, its characteristic of generating on-chain rewards through staking has attracted institutional capital seeking actual returns. Meanwhile, the relative decline in Bitcoin's market dominance may also prompt funds to flow into mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, initiating a new cycle of upward movement.

The price of Bitcoin has recently consolidated in the range of $117,000 to $120,000, with analysts holding differing views. Some traders believe the market may first dip to the $108,000 area to clear liquidity before rebounding. Other analyses suggest that if $116,750 cannot be maintained, the price of Bitcoin could quickly drop to the $110,000 range. Another trader's accumulation plan is distributed at the two levels of $113,850 and $112,000. He stated that if the price of Bitcoin successfully recovers to $120,000, the expectation of a dip will be negated, and the market may directly attempt to surge towards $125,000. Some analysts pointed out that if it breaks above $120,000, the short-term target would be $122,000, which could trigger around $2 billion in short liquidations.

On the Ethereum front, as the price returns to $3800, analysts generally display a strong bullish sentiment, with futures open interest hitting a historic high of $5.8 billion. Some analysts believe that the current data serves as a confirmation signal, and the continuous inflow of leveraged funds is injecting momentum for a "vertical rise." On-chain data also shows that funds are shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, with its open interest accounting for nearly a two-year high of 40%. In terms of network activity, the number of active Ethereum addresses and transaction volume has significantly increased, making it seem like reaching a historical high is just a matter of time. Regarding specific key price levels, the range of $4000 to $4100 is seen as the core focus for further upward movement, and successfully breaking through this range may open up the next stage of the upward trend.

It is worth noting that today marks the tenth anniversary of Ethereum, with its price rising from $0.3 to $3800, jumping to the 28th position among global assets. The Layer2 network Linea within its ecosystem has also announced its tokenomics, planning to airdrop 10% of the tokens to early community users. In Asia, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it will open applications for the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses starting August 1, and requires all compliant stablecoin holders to implement real-name verification.

Key Data (As of July 30, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $117,951 (Year-to-date +26.06%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $40.132 billion
• Ethereum: $3,803.76 (Year-to-date +14.12%), daily spot trading volume is $33.228 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 1.38 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 60.7%, Ether 11.9%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.65%/51.35%
• Sector fluctuations: AI down 3.89%; RWA down 3.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 128,069 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 301 million USD. The liquidation amount for BTC is 35.98 million USD, for Ether is 76.24 million USD, and for XRP is 12.78 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (118878.55 USD), Lower Channel Line (116524.52 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (3645.91 USD), Lower Channel Line (3573.71 USD)

ETF Flows (as of July 29)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$79.9781 million, net inflow for 4 days
• Ethereum ETF: +219 million USD, continuing net inflow for 18 days

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will launch the A2Z/USDT trading pair on July 30, and LOKA will be exchanged at a rate of 1 LOKA = 20 A2Z.
• Ethereum's 10th anniversary celebration live stream will be held at 10:30 PM, and a limited-time free NFT will be launched.
• Strategy plans to release its second quarter financial report on July 31.
• Big Time (BIGTIME) will unlock approximately 600 million tokens on July 30, worth about 32 million USD.
• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens on July 30, accounting for 9.53% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $13.8 million.
• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on July 31, which is 1.79% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 22.8 million USD.
• The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the U.S. until July 30, ( cap ) (July 31, 02:00)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference. (July 31, 02:30)
• The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 26 is ( million ): Previous value 21.7, forecast value 22.4 (July 31, 20:30)
• US June Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year: Previous Value 2.7%, Forecast Value 2.7% (July 31, 20:30)

Top 100 by market cap today with the largest gains: HEX up 25.4%, PulseX up 20.7%, XDC Network up 11.4%, Four up 11%, Pump.fun up 10%.

Hot News

• Anchorage Digital accumulated over $1.19 billion in Bitcoin purchases within 9 hours.
• Ark Invest purchased again $15.3 million worth of BitMine shares on Tuesday.
• BTCS plans to raise $2 billion to increase investment in cryptocurrency
• Linea announces the token distribution details, with 9% allocated to users through airdrops.
• Multiple addresses have accumulated a total of 648,000 Ether in half a month, worth 2.44 billion dollars.
• Market news: pump.fun promises to use 100% of its daily revenue for buybacks.
• Public company 180 Life plans a private placement of approximately $425 million and is transforming into an Ethereum treasury reserve company.
• The DEGEN Foundation discusses the phased destruction of 32.5% of its total supply of DEGEN tokens.