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The market is weak during the Double Festivals, institutional funds are getting on board, and a pump may be迎 in Q1 2025.
Market Weekly Report: The market is weak during the double festival period, and Q1 next year may迎来 a rise market.
Market Overview
This week, the cryptocurrency market is showing a downward trend due to the influence of the Christmas holiday. The market sentiment index has slightly risen from 7% to 10%, but it remains in the extreme fear zone. It is worth noting that despite the overall market weakness, the USDC, which is primarily based in the US market, has still achieved a 1.91% rise, indicating that institutional funds are continuing to enter the market, injecting a certain level of confidence.
The DeFi sector saw a slight decrease in TVL this week, down 0.37% to $52.7 billion, but yield projects like the machine gun pool performed remarkably well. The overall supply of stablecoins continues to grow, indicating that despite the market correction, fundamental liquidity is still flowing in, and stable yield projects like the machine gun pool are in high demand.
The AI Agent sector continues to attract significant market attention, with a total scale reaching $10.9 billion. In particular, the aipool model that integrates TEE technology has become a new focal point in the market, expected to emerge as a new asset issuance method following "inscription", showcasing the trend of deep integration between AI and blockchain technology.
Due to the impact of the holiday and the overall market decline, the Meme coin sector performed poorly this week, with a noticeable decrease in investor participation and capital inflow, while market enthusiasm has temporarily shifted to other sectors.
The public chain sector has shown strong resilience against declines, with Stacks achieving an important milestone for sBTC, BOB promoting the development of BitVM Bridge, and Taiko launching a new round of ecological plans, indicating that major public chains continue to make efforts in technological innovation and ecological construction.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue its sluggish trend during the New Year's holiday, and investors are advised to maintain a defensive allocation and increase the proportion of top assets while moderately participating in high-yield machine gun pool projects. In the long term, the market generally anticipates a rise in the first quarter of 2025, with AI Agent and DeFi machine gun pool projects being worthy of special attention.
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index rose from 7% last week to 10%, still in the extreme fear zone. Altcoins performed weaker than the benchmark index this week, showing a significant downtrend. Due to the Christmas holiday, liquidity has sharply decreased, leading to increased market price volatility, making sudden rises and falls more likely. Therefore, market sentiment is not high. Given the current market structure, it is expected that altcoins will move in sync with the benchmark index in the short term, with a low probability of independent trends.
When altcoins are in a state of extreme fear, the market is often at a temporary bottom, and a reversal to the upside may occur at any time.
Overview of Overall Market Trends
The cryptocurrency market is in a downtrend this week, with the sentiment index still in extreme fear.
DeFi-related crypto projects have performed prominently, showing the market's continued focus on enhancing basic yields.
The AI Agent track project has garnered high public attention this week, indicating that investors are actively seeking the next market breakout point.
Hot Track
AI Agent
This week, the market is in a downtrend, with all sectors experiencing a decline. Although most tokens in the AI Agent sector are also in a downtrend this week, they have the highest level of discussion in the market. The main topic of discussion this week has been the development of the aipool model, which combines AI Agent and TEE, and its impact on the future crypto market and DeFi.
One of the boosters for the periodic large rises in the cryptocurrency market is the emergence of new asset issuance methods. For example, past asset issuance methods such as ICOs, IEOs, INOs, IDOs, and inscriptions have quickly propelled the development of the market and the increase in cryptocurrency prices. In the current context of rapid integration of AI and cryptocurrency, aipool has become a highly popular asset issuance method, and it also represents a continuation of the "money-printing FI" trend at the beginning of 2024. If the aipool asset issuance method is widely accepted by the market, we will soon witness a small wave of asset issuance driven by the aipool model, so we should pay close attention to aipool-type projects.
Top five AI Agent projects by market capitalization:
DeFi track
TVL rise ranking
The top 5 projects by TVL rise in the market over the past week (excluding projects with a relatively low TVL, standard set at over 30 million USD):
Resolv (not yet issued): Resolv is a Delta neutral stablecoin project focused on the tokenization of market neutral investment portfolios. This week, Resolv completed an important technical upgrade, successfully transforming into an Omnichain project by integrating LayerZero and StarGate technologies. Its USDC Vault offers an APY of up to 36.36% on Euler Finance, attracting a TVL of $5.67 million within this week.
USDX Money (Unissued Token): USDX Money is an emerging synthetic dollar stablecoin protocol. This week, a brand new UI/UX upgrade was completed to optimize user interaction experience, while USDX/USDT and sUSDX/USDX liquidity pools were launched on Curve Finance. Among them, sUSDX reached a TVL of $170 million through cooperation with Lista DAO.
Usual (USUAL): Usual is a stablecoin project supported by Binance. Recently, it secured $10 million in Series A funding led by Binance Labs and Kraken Ventures. Usual's TVL has surpassed $1.5 billion, placing it among the top five stablecoins globally, and the DAO treasury has doubled to $17 million. The project has launched USUALx staking rewards with an APY of up to 18,000% and initiated a community airdrop event.
Hashnote (Unissued Token): The Hashnote project is a solution focused on institutional cryptocurrency management. This week, we reached a strategic cooperation with CoreDAO and participated in its ecological group panel meeting, highlighting the innovative Bitcoin dual staking model that combines BTC and Core Token.
Spectra (SPECTRA): Spectra is a protocol for the tokenization of future yield. This week, a new governance contract was successfully launched on the Base mainnet, and the Gauges and incentivize pages were introduced in the Spectra App. At the same time, the multi-locking feature for veSPECTRA holders has been optimized to enable more efficient participation in the Gauge voting mechanism.
In summary, we can see that the projects with a rapid increase in TVL this week are mainly concentrated in the stablecoin yield sector (machine gun pool).
Overall performance of the track
Stablecoin market capitalization is steadily growing: USDT decreased from $145.1 billion last week to $144.7 billion, a drop of 0.27%. USDC increased from $42.1 billion last week to $42.9 billion, with a growth rate of 1.91%. It can be seen that although the market is in a downward trend this week, the USDC, which is mainly focused on the US market, has still shown growth, indicating that the purchasing power of the market is still maintaining a continuous influx of funds.
Liquidity is gradually increasing: The risk-free arbitrage rates in traditional markets are continuously decreasing with the ongoing interest rate cuts, while the arbitrage rates of on-chain DeFi projects are increasing due to the rising value of cryptocurrency assets. Returning to DeFi will be a very good choice.
Funding situation: The TVL of DeFi projects has risen from $52.9 billion last week to $52.7 billion now. Although there have been two consecutive weeks of negative growth, the extent of the negative growth is small, at 0.37%. The main reason is that this week, led by the U.S. market, the Western markets are in the Christmas holiday, resulting in a decline in both trading volumes of various tokens and on-chain activities. Next week is the New Year's holiday, and no significant changes are expected. Therefore, the focus should be on the overall TVL changes in the market in January, paying attention to whether the downward trend continues.
In-depth Analysis
pump driving force:
The core driving factors of this round of pump can be summarized as follows: Due to the recent downward trend in the market, the APY of various DeFi protocols has decreased. However, stablecoin yield projects have increased their yields through token/point rewards, which has given the gun pool projects a significant advantage in terms of APY from the overall market perspective. Specifically:
This conduction mechanism strengthens the value support of stablecoin yield projects, forming a positive growth momentum.
Potential risks:
Due to the recent upward trend in the market, investors are focusing more on yields and borrowing leverage, while neglecting the risks of decline. Additionally, this week, due to the Christmas holiday, there has been a sharp reduction in market liquidity, leading to selling pressure without sufficient liquidity to absorb it, resulting in continuous price drops and triggering liquidations of long contracts in the market, causing losses for investors. The chain liquidation risk caused by these liquidations has greatly increased, leading to further price decreases and the liquidation of more assets.
Performance in Other Tracks
public chain
The top 5 public chains by TVL rise in the past week (excluding public chains with smaller TVL):
Stacks: This week, 922 BTC were transferred to the Stacks network, completing the sBTC phase one deposit cap of 1000 BTC. In terms of DeFi applications, 35% of sBTC has already generated yield on the Zest Protocol. The ALEX community also voted to allocate 12 million ALEX tokens for the Surge program.
BOB: This week, BOB collaborated with Fiamma Labs to develop and release a prototype of the BitVM Bridge based on zero-knowledge technology, with plans to launch the testnet in early 2025. A partnership was established with Lombard Finance, successfully enabling Lombard Finance to deploy on the BOB chain. Preliminary governance discussions were also held with Aave, with plans to bring its protocol into the BOB network.
Taiko: This week, Taiko launched the Trailblazers Season 3 program, establishing a reward pool of 6 million TAIKO tokens. The number of projects on the Taiko chain ecosystem has grown to 130, with Symmetric added as an important DEX partner.
Cardano: This week, Cardano highlighted the technical advantages of the slashing mechanism that ensures the security of users' ADA assets, and launched convenient Web application development tools. Strengthening cooperation with hardware wallet service provider Ledger, while promoting the decentralization process of community governance through the DReps (Delegated Representatives) voting decision-making model.
Sei: This week, Sei announced a significant technological breakthrough called "Giga," successfully expanding the EVM to a processing capacity of 5 gigagas per second, achieving a 50-fold performance increase. The Giga Roadmap was released through Developer Office Hours, establishing a clear roadmap for future technological development.
Rise Ranking Overview
The top 5 tokens with the highest rise in the market over the past week (excluding tokens with very low trading volume and meme coins):
ZEN: This week, Horizen successfully deployed the Horizen 2.0 Devnet testnet, launching an optimized zero-knowledge (ZK) verification solution to reduce technical complexity and costs. Established a strategic partnership with Automata Network to promote Web3 development.
MOCA: This week, Moca Network successfully integrated with SK Planet's OK Cashbag application, which brought significant user growth, including 1.5 million page views and 800,000 spin-the-wheel interactions.
PHA: This week, Phala Network officially launched Phala 2.0, integrating GPU TEE technology and Ethereum.