Frontier Lab Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Report | W29

BTC and ETH Overview this Week

Market Performance

The crypto market is in a Rebound trend this week, with obvious zone rotation effects.

Key Events

Mtgox Compensation Incident

• Overview: Mtgox bankruptcy compensation has begun, and more than 50,000 BTC have been compensated, leaving 90,344 BTC on its Address.
• Analysis: With the start of the compensation plan, BTC price did not experience significant fluctuation and has maintained a pump status over the past week. Therefore, investors have already priced in the unfavourable information about Mtgox, and the impact of the Mtgox compensation event on the market is gradually diminishing.

Trump Assassination Incident

• Overview: On July 14, 2024, during a speech by Trump, he was attacked by a gunman.
• Analysis: Trump's attitude towards the Cryptocurrency industry is friendly, and the monetary policy section in his campaign platform clearly states that he wants to drop the USD Exchange Rate to promote USD depreciation and boost exports. Therefore, the market believes that after taking office, he will initiate a large-scale point shaving of the Federal Reserve, increase market liquidity, and gain strong support from investors in the industry. The probability of his election success has greatly increased after the assassination attempt, which has driven the market pump.

Approval for ETH Spot ETF is expected to be granted next week

• Overview: The market has adjusted the expected approval time for ETH Spot ETF to July 23.
• Analysis: This week, the Exchange Rate of ETH/BTC has experienced a pump. Market investors are betting that the ETH Spot ETF will be approved next week. After the approval, it is very likely that Grayscale will continue to see the phenomenon of continuous outflow after the approval of the BTC Spot ETF, which will have an impact on the ETH price. This is also the focus to follow next week.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September

• Overview: The market has fully priced in that the Fed will begin its first rate cut in September.
• Analysis: This week, Fed Chairman Powell, Director Waller, voters Williams, and Gulsby have successively made remarks hinting that the Fed is about to cut interest rates, so traders have already raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 100%, and predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice this year, boosting risk assets.

U.S. stocks start rotation

• Overview: The seven technology giants have experienced varying degrees of pullback, but the three major indices are pumping overall, and small-cap stocks are starting to take over the market's pumping baton.
• Analysis: The pump of the US stock market has shifted to zone rotation, and is no longer dominated by high-tech Blue-Chip Stocks leading the overall market pump. Therefore, the Bull Market of the US stock market is likely to enter the second half.

Altcoin Overview This Week

Overall Performance

Market sentiment continues to be optimistic this week, with a significant rise compared to last week's 20%. The Unfavourable Information factor is gradually disappearing, and with various factors such as the upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the US election, investors are gradually regaining confidence in the market.

Although the Altcoin sentiment index has seen a significant rebound, the Altcoin price is still a certain distance away from the level before the German government's sell-off. When the Altcoin sentiment reaches 90%, it is easy to trigger a price pullback, so we should remain cautious in the coming weeks and avoid blindly chasing the highs.

Rise Ranking Overview

In the past week, the top 5 tokens in the market by growth (excluding tokens with very small volume and meme coins), data source: coinmarketcap

The rise list did not show the characteristic of "zone concentration", pumpToken is scattered in each zone, and the increase is higher than last week, indicating that this week Altcoin showed a very high bullish sentiment.

Meme Token Gainers

Data Source: coinmarketcap.com

The market has shown a rising trend this week, and the Meme track has regained attention from the market, with outstanding performance. The increase this week compared to last week shows a significant rise.

Social Media Hotspots

Based on the data of the top five rises in LunarCrush and the top five AI scores in Scopechat, the statistical data for this week (7.13-7.19) is obtained:

The most frequently occurring theme is L1s, and the list of Tokens is as follows (Tokens with very low volume and meme coin are not included in the count):

Data source from lunarcrush and Scopechat

Theme Tracking

Data Source: SoSo Value

From the above table, it can be seen that in terms of weekly return rate, the best performing track is Payment, and the worst performing track is SocialFi.

In the Payment sector, XRP has the largest market share, reaching 63.53%. This week, XRP pumped by 26.61% due to its closed-door meeting with the SEC, which sparked market speculation of a possible settlement between XRP and the SEC, thereby driving the pump in the entire Payment sector. BCH, LTC, and XLM, which have a relatively large share in the sector, also showed good pumping trends this week due to the market's recovery, making the Payment sector stand out among all sectors.

The proportion of TON in the SocialFi track is 93.41%, but TON has fallen 2.01% this week, making the SocialFi track the only one that has declined among all tracks.

Next Week Crypto Major Events Forecast

• On Wednesday (July 24th), the Central Bank of Canada will announce the Interest Rate decision
• On Thursday (July 25), Bitcoin 2024 will be held in Nashville, USA, during which Trump, Bobby Kennedy, Michael Saylor, and Snowden will be invited.
• Friday (July 26) US June core PCE price index; final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July; EDCON 2024; Solana Hacker House held in Bangalore

Next Week Outlook

• BTC: The Mtgox incident has begun to compensate, and there are still 90,344 coins on the Address. Over 50,000 coins have been transferred out, and the German government's selling has been completed. The remaining concern is whether there will be a dump phenomenon after the Mtgox compensation, as well as the trend of the US stock market. It is highly probable that BTC will maintain a trend of oscillation next week.
• Ethereum: The Spot ETF of Ethereum is delayed again until July 23, but is highly likely to be approved on July 23. Mainly follow whether there will be a large sell-off in Grayscale's ETH after it is approved next week, similar to the sell-off of BTC Spot ETF after its approval.
• Altcoin: Due to the continuous reduction of significant Unfavourable Information factors in the market, investors will soon enter the level of greed. Despite the significant Rebound of Altcoin this week, there is still a certain gap from the price before the decline, and wide-range oscillation Rebound is still the main theme of the market.