Bloomberg uyarısı: ABD hisse senetleri irrasyonel bir refah içinde, Greenspan değerleme endeksi ne gösteriyor?

Wall Street bullish market continues, US stocks have been hitting historical highs since last year, but a valuation indicator of the US stock market shows that the current valuation of US stocks is exactly in line with the price level when former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan commented on 'irrational exuberance' in December 1996, and has reached the highest level since 2002, indicating that the downside risk of US stocks has increased. (Background: The number of bankrupt companies in the United States has reached a new high since the financial crisis! Wall Street: The risk of economic recession may trigger a large retreat in the first half of the US stock market) The Greenspan valuation method compares the US stock yield with the US 10-year bond yield. The yield is calculated by dividing earnings per share by the stock price. The basic logic of this indicator is to measure whether the valuation of US stocks is reasonable or has reached irrational exuberance by comparing the return on the stock market with that of risk-free assets. According to a report by Marketwatch, Bloomberg columnist John Authers used the Greenspan valuation method to calculate and found that the current valuation of US stocks has reached the highest level since 2002, consistent with the level when former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan commented on 'irrational exuberance' in December 1996. This indicates that the downside risk of US stocks has increased, and the Nasdaq index of US stocks peaked in 2000, leading to a stock disaster after the bursting of the internet bubble. However, it took more than three years to hit the peak after Greenspan's warning, so the response time of this indicator may be longer. The indicator of the Greenspan valuation method. Source: Bloomberg At the same time, the recent appearance of this indicator is more related to the soaring US bond yield, and the main reason for the recent surge in US bond yield is the market's concern about stubborn inflationary pressures and the prospects for Trump's second term. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman explained that the high surge in US bond yield is because the market is beginning to believe that Trump will implement ideas such as high tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and large-scale expulsion of illegal immigrants. If Trump does so, it is very likely to boost inflation and force the Federal Reserve to temporarily suspend rate cuts. The US 10-year bond yield rose for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, closing at 4.683%, with a cumulative increase of 12 basis points. Changes in the US 10-year bond yield. Source: Marketwatch US stock pricing is at a perfect level, and correction is easy to occur Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook also expressed her views on US stocks on Monday, pointing out that at the current price, there is a risk of a significant downturn in the stock market and corporate bonds. As of Wednesday, the S&P 500 index was only 3% lower than the closing historical high. Peter Oppenheimer, chief global stock strategist at Goldman Sachs, stated in a report released on Thursday that with investors digesting the rise in US bond yields, high valuations, and the uncertainty of further rate cuts, the current 'perfect' market environment may be difficult to sustain: The recent strong rise in US stocks has made the current stock market valuation close to perfect. Although we expect overall stock market to continue to rise throughout the year, mainly driven by corporate profits, the stock market is increasingly vulnerable to correction, especially if the US bond yield rises further, or if economic data and earnings performance disappoint. Peter Oppenheimer pointed out three factors that have complicated the outlook for the US stock market in 2025, including the rapid rise in the stock market may have already reflected optimistic expectations for economic growth in 2025, high valuations limiting future returns on stocks, and abnormally high market concentration increasing portfolio risks. Related reports: BTC price drops to $96,000, Nvidia's 6% plunge triggers a collapse in US stocks, will the Federal Reserve only cut interest rates once this year? Buffett's 'hoarding cash' foreshadows a crisis in US stocks? Analyzing 20 years of historical data from Berkshire Hathaway, warning from Wells Fargo: the disconnect between US stocks and the real economy continues to widen, beware of a major short-term plunge. (Bloomberg warning: US stocks are in irrational exuberance, what does the Greenspan valuation indicator reveal?) This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic area.