Is Solana Outshining XRP in the Spot ETF Race? XRP Odds Crashes to 75% | CoinGape

Investors have been awaiting the SEC’s decision on the Solana and XRP Spot ETF for months, but the delays persist. The battle for the next altcoin ETF approval is getting fiercer with time, and every news item around them is affecting their odds of approval. Now, the Ripple token is falling behind while Solana is leading in terms of Polymarket bets. Why? Let’s discuss.

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XRP Spot ETF Odds Crash to 75% While Solana Hits 92%

The most prominent candidates for approval are the XRP and Solana spot ETF. Although many more crypto ETFs are also in line for approval, the Polymarket and expert odds suggest that these two have high chances. However, today, SOL is leading the race as the Polymarket odds for the Ripple token crashed to 75% before bouncing to 78%.


For the first time, the Ripple ETF approval odds on Polymarket have dropped below 80% since April, signaling building doubt among investors. At its prime, the odds were 98.2% at the beginning of the month, but it’s crashing now as the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit continues.

Notably, Ripple has dropped its cross-appeal against the SEC, but the case is far from over. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel argues that the case is still active unless the SEC formally votes to drop their appeal. With this update, the investors’ sentiments have been affected, crashing XRP spot approval odds.

Interestingly, the confidence in Solana spot ETF approval is rising amid this, currently at its ATH of 92%.


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Solana Leading the Spot ETF Race, But XRP Might Bounce Back

Solana is definitely ahead in the number of ETF filings, with a total of 9 issuers awaiting the SEC’s decision. The most recent application is from Invesco and Galaxy Digital, aiming to list it under the QSOL ticker.

Besides its gaining dominance due to strong institutional interest, favorable SEC engagement, and its technical advantage. Unlike XRP, SOL is free from any lawsuits and doubts over its commodity status. More importantly, it stands apart from other exchange-traded funds, as it offers 8% annual returns with staking-enabled functionality

Not to mention, Solana blockchain speed, low fees, and upcoming hard fork make it highly scalable and efficient. As a result, investors are more drawn towards it.

Notably, the drop in XRP spot ETF approval odds is likely temporary as the lawsuit news affected investors. With better clarity on the situation, it may bounce back. Besides, Bloomberg analysts have kept their prediction at 95% chances at press time, so it’s still in the race.


In conclusion, Solana is dominating, but there’s still high uncertainty about who will get approval first.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What are the current approval odds for Solana and XRP ETFs?

Bloomberg's analysts’ prediction is 95% probability of approval, but on Polymarket, it's 92% for Solana and 78% for XRP.

2. Why are XRP spot ETF approval odds declining?

XRP’s approval odds are declining due to ongoing legal uncertainties in the Ripple vs SEC case.

3. How many ETF filings does Solana have pending with the SEC?

Solana currently has nine ETF filing awaiting the SEC’s decisions.

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