Will Third Quarter End XRP Price's 206-Day Consolidation?

XRP price is stuck in a sideways trend for 206 days. With no directional bias in sight, declining volatility and the second quarter coming to an end, what can investors expect in the third quarter?

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XRP Price Performance in Q2 2025

The year-to-date returns for XRP are 0.49% as the token price trades at $2.09. In the second quarter, XRP price is up 0.17% and the main reason for this lackluster performance is the ongoing consolidation. After hitting an all-time high (ATH) of $3.40 on January 16, 2025, the token has been moving sideways, with volatility shrinking.

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 14% year-to-date and nearly 30% in the second quarter. While Ethereum’s (ETH) second quarter returns hover around 35%.

XRP Q2 Performance 1-Day Chart### Why Has XRP Underperformed?

Regulatory Uncertainty: The prolonged SEC lawsuit and lack of clarity have subdued the investor interest that persisted at the end of 2024. Additionally, Ripple lost a key court battle as Judge Torres denied Ripple and the SEC’s joint motion in the ongoing lawsuit.

Volatility Plays: The second half of 2024 saw a massive spike XRP price, leading to a revisit of its 2017 highs. When volatility increases, it often results in periods of consolidation. A high spike in volatility in late 2024 is one of the reasons why the XRP price is stuck in a seven-month consolidation.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: The Iran-Israel war has impacted XRP and other risk assets. Due to the escalation, risk assets have resorted to consolidation.

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Will Q3 Put an End to XRP’s 7-Month Chop?

Here are a few catalysts that could end XRP’s seven-month consolidation.

1. With Bitcoin just 5% away from its all-time highs, investors need to pay attention to the big crypto. A breakout above new highs could signal a shift in capital allocation toward altcoins. In such a case, XRP price is likely to end its consolidation.
2. David Sachs, the crypto czar, said that July will be a big month and hinted at the bill signing for GENIUS, which will provide much-needed clarity around stablecoins. With this, Ripple’s RLUSD will most likely be shot into the spotlight, especially after Circle’s massive win post IPO. This could certainly boost the outlook for XRP as well. Recently, Ripple minted 12M RLUSD as the stablecoin competition heats up.
3. Moreover, the 206 days of consolidation has inadvertantly created a low volatility regime which will soon be followed by an expansion phase. The start of a new quarter will also add to this volatility expansion outlook, potentially ending XRP’s chop.

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Key XRP Price Levels to Watch

On the monthly time frame, XRP price tagged the $1.60, a key support level. This level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 591% rally the token experienced in just two months, and also coincides with the monthly candlestick closes in May and June 2021.

XRP/USD 1-Month ChartThe weekly chart also shows a similar outlook to the monthly and provides no nuances. The daily chart, however, shows the importance of the $2 psychological level and how it outlines the buyer demand.

Hence, investors should pay close attention to $2, a bounce here could be key in kick-starting the rally that ends the 206-day consolidation. Moreover, a breakdown of the said level could also end the aforementioned chop.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. Why has XRP underperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum?

XRP’s 206-day consolidation stems from regulatory uncertainty due to SEC lawsuit, post-volatility cooling, and geopolitical risks due to Iran-Israel war.

2. What could break XRP’s 7-month sideways trend?

Key catalysts include Bitcoin's ATH breakout, passing of the GENIUS Act, and volatility expansion in Q3.

3. What are the key price levels to watch?

The immediate support level at $2 could spark a crash to $1.60 or a rally to $3.

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