BTC shows resilience in consolidation as policies and funds resonate to boost market confidence.

The past week has seen the crypto market at the intersection of technical consolidation and macroeconomic games. On one hand, the policies of the Federal Reserve are still unclear, with fluctuating expectations of short-term interest rate cuts; on the other hand, the advancement of stablecoin legislation and the continuous inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs have injected moderate confidence into the market. Overall, despite the lack of clear upward momentum, the market structure is trending towards stability.

1. BTC fluctuates at a high level, on-chain structure is stable

Bitcoin has maintained high volatility over the past few days, with prices testing the range of $108,000 to $110,000 multiple times. As of July 7, Bitcoin is currently quoted at $109,500, having risen slightly by about 2% over the week, and still remains within the technical consolidation range.

On-chain data shows that large wallet addresses continue to accumulate, while exchange BTC balances are steadily declining, and there has been no panic selling in the market. MicroStrategy announced an increase of 4,900 BTC at the end of June, which further boosted the confidence of medium to long-term investors.

Ethereum (ETH) showed a slightly strong trend, benefiting from ETF inflows and improvements in on-chain indicators, rising to $2,550 at one point. The number of accumulated holding addresses for ETH reached 22.74 million, with over 6 million newly added in June alone. The scale of on-chain liquid staking surpassed 35.56 million, both hitting historical highs. Overall, the structure indicates that capital from mainstream coins has not exited, and some investors are beginning to position themselves for mid-term opportunities.

2. Macroeconomic and Policy Environment Eases, Market Risk Appetite Recovers

The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, higher than the expected 110,000. This result alleviates market concerns about a weakening labor market and also reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (FED) taking aggressive rate cuts in the short term.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, maintains a "data-dependent" policy stance and has not provided a clear timeline for interest rate cuts. The market currently widely expects that September or November may be potential turning points for policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that a new round of trade agreements is expected to be reached with several countries before the expiration of tariffs on "Liberation Day" on July 9.

In terms of regulation, the GENIUS stablecoin bill is progressing between the Senate and the House of Representatives. The bill focuses on key points such as issuance mechanisms, reserve audits, and KYC compliance, and is seen as an important milestone for the United States in advancing the legalization of stablecoins. Trump has publicly called for the swift passage of a "clean version" of the bill, which also reflects a positive change in the political attitude towards the encryption industry.

3. Platform security and asset innovation go hand in hand, the concept of tokenization in US stocks is heating up

Although prices remain resilient, industry security issues still need vigilance. According to SlowMist data, there were over 120 security incidents in the Ethereum ecosystem in the first half of 2025, mainly focusing on smart contract flaws and permission setting errors. Some platforms have introduced on-chain insurance and risk control contracts to enhance risk resistance.

At the same time, the field of asset innovation is also advancing rapidly, with "tokenization of US stocks" recently attracting industry attention. Robinhood announced support for tokenized contract trading of companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, but clarified that these assets are not actual equity, but rather based on on-chain derivative contracts, with their prices anchored to the actual stock market value. Although OpenAI has publicly denied any authorized cooperation with Robinhood, market interest in such products has not waned.

Although this tokenized stock has legal and regulatory disputes, it reveals that the trend of integration between traditional and encryption finance is accelerating. If relevant financial instruments can be improved under a compliant framework in the future, it may open up more digital investment channels for retail and institutional investors.

On the other hand, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the inflow of funds for spot Ether ETFs is expected to accelerate significantly in the second half of 2025. The net inflow in June reached 1.17 billion USD, indicating that traditional institutions are gradually building confidence in the Ether ecosystem.

4E Summary: Prudent Strategy, Positive Structure

The current market is still in a phase of high-level volatility combined with sensitivity to news. Although there is a lack of explosive positive news, stable on-chain data, no outflow of mainstream funds, and continuous policy promotion have built a foundation of confidence for the mid-term market.

BTC and ETH have shown relative resilience over the past week, as mainstream platforms and on-chain protocols continue to optimize security mechanisms. Progress in multiple areas, such as stablecoin legislation, tokenization innovation in US stocks, Ethereum ETFs, and tax reforms, is reshaping the structure of the entire crypto finance system.

About 4E:

As the official partner of the Argentina national team, the 4E platform supports assets such as cryptocurrency, gold, US stocks, indices, and foreign exchange, offering one-stop trading for USDT. Recently, it has also launched a promotion for new users to receive 88U as a welcome gift, providing trading benefits for investors. With the help of 4E, investors can keep up with market dynamics, flexibly adjust strategies, and seize every potential opportunity.